Abstract

The reputation of firms is largely channeled through their ownership structure. We use this relation to determine reputation spillovers between transnational companies and their participated companies in an ownership network core of 1318 firms. We then apply concepts of network controllability to identify minimum sets of driver nodes (MDS) of 314 firms in this network. The importance of these driver nodes is classified regarding their control contribution, their operating revenue, and their reputation. The latter two are also taken as proxies for the access costs when utilizing firms as driver nodes. Using an enrichment analysis, we find that firms with high reputation maintain the controllability of the network, but rarely become top drivers, whereas firms with medium reputation most likely become top driver nodes. We further show that MDSs with lower access costs can be used to control the reputation dynamics in the whole network.

Abstract

In our multi-agent model agents generate wealth from repeated interactions for which a prisoner's dilemma payoff matrix is assumed. Their gains are taxed by a government at a rate α. The resulting budget is spent to cover administrative costs and to pay a bonus to cooperative agents, which can be identified correctly only with a probability p. Agents decide at each time step to choose either cooperation or defection based on different information. In the local scenario, they compare their potential gains from both strategies. In the global scenario, they compare the gains of the cooperative and defective subpopulations. We derive analytical expressions for the critical bonus needed to make cooperation as attractive as defection. We show that for the local scenario the government can establish only a medium level of cooperation, because the critical bonus increases with the level of cooperation. In the global scenario instead full cooperation can be achieved once the cold-start problem is solved, because the critical bonus decreases with the level of cooperation. This allows to lower the tax rate, while maintaining high cooperation.

Abstract

The dynamics of collaboration networks of firms follow a life-cycle of growth and decline. That does not imply they also become less resilient. Instead, declining collaboration networks may still have the ability to mitigate shocks from firms leaving, and to recover from these losses by adapting to new partners. To demonstrate this, we analyze 21.500 R&D collaborations of 14.500 firms in six different industrial sectors over 25 years. We calculate time-dependent probabilities of firms leaving the network and simulate drop-out cascades, to determine the expected dynamics of decline. We then show that deviations from these expectations result from the adaptivity of the network, which mitigates the decline. These deviations can be used as a measure of network resilience.

Abstract

In many complex systems, elements interact via time-varying network topologies.Recent research shows that temporal correlations in the chronological ordering of interactions crucially influence network properties and dynamical processes.How these correlations affect our ability to control systems with time-varying interactions remains unclear. In this work, we use higher-order network models to extend the framework of structural controllability to temporal networks, where the chronological ordering of interactions gives rise to time-respecting paths with non-Markovian characteristics.We study six empirical data sets and show that non-Markovian characteristics of real systems can both increase or decrease the minimum time needed to control the whole system.With both empirical data and synthetic models, we further show that spectral properties of generalisations of graph Laplacians to higher-order networks can be used to analytically capture the effect of temporal correlations on controllability. Our work highlights that (i) correlations in the chronological ordering of interactions are an important source of complexity that significantly influences the controllability of temporal networks, and (ii) higher-order network models are a powerful tool to understand the temporal-topological characteristics of empirical systems.

Abstract

The social percolation model (Solomon et al., 2000} considers a 2-dimensional regular lattice. Each site is occupied by an agent with a preference $x_{i}$ sampled from a uniform distribution $U[0,1]$. Agents transfer the information about the quality $q$ of a movie to their neighbors only if $x_{i}\leq q$. Information percolates through the lattice if $q=q_{c}=0.593$. -- From a network perspective the percolating cluster can be seen as a random-regular network with $n_{c}$ nodes and a mean degree that depends on $q_{c}$. Preserving these quantities of the random-regular network, a true random network can be generated from the $G(n,p)$ model after determining the link probability $p$. I then demonstrate how this random network can be transformed into a threshold network, where agents create links dependent on their $x_{i}$ values. Assuming a dynamics of the $x_{i}$ and a mechanism of group formation, I further extend the model toward an adaptive social network model.

Abstract

Global cities boast higher rates of innovation as measured through patent and scientific production. However, the source of the location advantage of innovation hubs is still debated in the literature, with arguments ranging from localized knowledge spillovers to network effects. Thanks to an extensive data set of individual scientist career paths, we shed new light on the role of scientist location choices in determining the superior innovative performance of global cities. We analyze the career paths of around two million researchers over a decade across more than two thousand cities around the globe. First, we show that scientists active in global cities are more productive in terms of citation weighted publications. We then show that this superior performance is in part driven by highly prolific scientists moving and remaining preferentially in global cities, i.e., central cities in the international scientist mobility network. The overall picture that emerges is that global cities are better positioned to attract and retain prolific scientists than more peripheral cities.

Abstract

Leading-following behavior as a way of transferring information about the location of resources is widespread in different animal societies. However, it cannot always be observed directly. Here, we develop a general method to infer leading-following events from observational data if only the discrete appearance of individuals is recorded. Our method further allows to distinguish such events from local enhancement at the resource, such as swarming behavior in case of bats, which is another widespread way of transferring information among animals. To test our methodology, we analyze longitudinal data about the roosting behavior of Bechstein's bats from two different colonies and different years. The detection of leading-following events allows us, in a second step, to construct social networks in which nodes represent individual bats and directed and weighted links the leading-following events. We analyze the topology of these networks on the level of the colony, to see whether all individuals participate in leading-following behavior. Further, based on the leading-following network we measure the importance of individuals in this leading-following behavior by calculating different centrality measures. We find that individuals can be consistently ranked regarding their influence on others. Moreover, we identify a small set of individuals that play a central role in leading other bats to roosts. Our methodology can be used to understand the leading-following behavior and the individual impact of group members on the spread of information in animal groups in general.

Abstract

High skill labour is an important factor underpinning the competitive advantage of modern economies. Therefore, attracting and retaining scientists has become a major concern for migration policy. In this work, we study the migration of scientists on a global scale, by combining two large data sets covering the publications of 3.5 Mio scientists over 60 years. We analyse their geographical distances moved for a new affiliation and their age when moving, this way reconstructing their geographical ``career paths''. These paths are used to derive the world network of scientists mobility between cities and to analyse its topological properties. We further develop and calibrate an agent-based model, such that it reproduces the empirical findings both at the level of scientists and of the global network. Our model takes into account that the academic hiring process is largely demand-driven and demonstrates that the probability of scientists to relocate decreases both with age and with distance. Our results allow interpreting the model assumptions as micro-based decision rules that can explain the observed mobility patterns of scientists.

Abstract

We propose an agent-based model of collective opinion formation to study the wisdom of crowds under social influence. The opinion of an agent is a continuous positive value, denoting its subjective answer to a factual question. The wisdom of crowds states that the average of all opinions is close to the truth, i.e. the correct answer. But if agents have the chance to adjust their opinion in response to the opinions of others, this effect can be destroyed. Our model investigates this scenario by evaluating two competing effects: (i) agents tend to keep their own opinion (individual conviction β), (ii) they tend to adjust their opinion if they have information about the opinions of others (social influence α). For the latter, two different regimes (full information vs. aggregated information) are compared. Our simulations show that social influence only in rare cases enhances the wisdom of crowds. Most often, we find that agents converge to a collective opinion that is even farther away from the true answer. So, under social influence the wisdom of crowds can be systematically wrong.

Abstract

"Wisdom of crowds" refers to the phenomenon that the average opinion of a group of individuals on a given question can be very close to the true answer. It requires a large group diversity of opinions, but the collective error, the difference between the average opinion and the true value, has to be small. We consider a stochastic opinion dynamics where individuals can change their opinion based on the opinions of others (social influence α), but to some degree also stick to their initial opinion (individual conviction β). We then derive analytic expressions for the dynamics of the collective error and the group diversity. We analyze their long-term behavior to determine the impact of the two parameters (α,β) and the initial opinion distribution on the wisdom of crowds. This allows us to quantify the ambiguous role of social influence: only if the initial collective error is large, it helps to improve the wisdom of crowds, but in most cases it deteriorates the outcome. In these cases, individual conviction still improves the wisdom of crowds because it mitigates the impact of social influence.

Abstract

We propose a novel sequence prediction method for sequential data capturing node traversals in graphs. Our method builds on a statistical modelling framework that combines multiple higher-order network models into a single multi-order model. We develop a technique to fit such multi-order models in empirical sequential data and to select the optimal maximum order. Our framework facilitates both next-element and full sequence prediction given a sequence-prefix of any length. We evaluate our model based on six empirical data sets containing sequences from website navigation as well as public transport systems. The results show that our method out-performs state-of-the-art algorithms for next-element prediction. We further demonstrate the accuracy of our method during out-of-sample sequence prediction and validate that our method can scale to data sets with millions of sequences.

Abstract

Global mobility and migration of scientists is an important modern phenomenon with economic and political implications. As scientists become ever more footloose it is important to identify general patterns and regularities at a global scale and how it impacts a country's scientific output. The analysis of mobility and brain circulation patterns at global scale remains challenging, due to difficulties in obtaining individual level mobility data. In this work we trace intercity and international mobility through bibliographic records. We reconstruct the intercity and international mobility network of 3.7 million life scientists moving between 5 thousand cities and 189 Countries. In this exploratory analysis we offer evidence that international scientist mobility is marked by national borders and show that international mobility boosts the scientific output of selected countries.

Abstract

The mobility of scientists between different universities and countries is important to foster knowledge exchange. At the same time, the potential mobility is restricted by geographic and institutional constraints, which leads to temporal correlations in the career trajectories of scientists. To quantify this effect, we extract 3.5 million career trajectories of scientists from two large scale bibliographic data sets and analyze them applying a novel method of higher-order networks. We study the effect of temporal correlations at three different levels of aggregation, universities, cities and countries. We find strong evidence for such correlations for the top 100 universities, i.e. scientists move likely between specific institutions. These correlations also exist at the level of countries, but cannot be found for cities. Our results allow to draw conclusions about the institutional path dependence of scientific careers and the efficiency of mobility programs.

Abstract

We investigate a multi-agent model of firms in a Research & Development (R&D) network. Each firm is characterized by its knowledge stock xi(t), which follows a non-linear dynamics. xi(t) grows with the input from other firms, i.e., by knowledge transfer, and decays otherwise. However, maintaining the interactions that increase knowledge stock is costly for all partners involved. Because of this, firms leave the network whenever their expected knowledge growth is not realized. This, in turn, may cause other firms also to leave the network. The paper discusses two bottom-up intervention scenarios to prevent, reduce, or delay such cascades of firms leaving. The first one is based on the formalism of network controllability, in which driver nodes are identified and subsequently incentivized, by reducing their costs. The second one combines node interventions and network interventions. It proposes the controlled removal of a single firm and the random replacement of firms leaving. This allows to generate small cascades, which prevents the occurrence of large cascades. We find that both approaches successfully mitigate cascades and thus improve the resilience of the R&D network.

Abstract

It is known that individual opinions on different policy issues often align to a dominant ideological dimension (e.g. ``left'' vs. ``right'') and become increasingly polarized. We provide an agent-based model that reproduces these two stylized facts as emergent properties of an opinion dynamics in a multi-dimensional space of continuous opinions. The mechanisms for the change of agents' opinions in this multi-dimensional space are derived from cognitive dissonance theory and structural balance theory. We test assumptions from proximity voting and from directional voting regarding their ability to reproduce the expected emerging properties. We further study how the emotional involvement of agents, i.e. their individual resistance to change opinions, impacts the dynamics. We identify two regimes for the global and the individual alignment of opinions. If the affective involvement is high and shows a large variance across agents, this fosters the emergence of a dominant ideological dimension. Agents align their opinions along this dimension in opposite directions, i.e. create a state of polarization.

Abstract

We provide a general framework to model the growth of networks consisting of different coupled layers. Our aim is to estimate the impact of one such layer on the dynamics of the others. As an application, we study a scientometric network, where one layer consists of publications as nodes and citations as links, whereas the second layer represents the authors. This allows to address the question how characteristics of authors, such as their number of publications or number of previous co-authors, impacts the citation dynamics of a new publication. To test different hypotheses about this impact, our model combines citation constituents and social constituents in different ways. We then evaluate their performance in reproducing the citation dynamics in nine different physics journals. For this, we develop a general method for statistical parameter estimation and model selection that is applicable to growing multi-layer networks. It takes both the parameter errors and the model complexity into account and is computationally efficient and scalable to large networks.

Abstract

The unsupervised detection of anomalies in time series data has important applications in user behavioral modeling, fraud detection, and cybersecurity. Anomaly detection has, in fact, been extensively studied in categorical sequences. However, we often have access to time series data that represent paths through networks. Examples include transaction sequences in financial networks, click streams of users in networks of cross-referenced documents, or travel itineraries in transportation networks. To reliably detect anomalies, we must account for the fact that such data contain a large number of independent observations of paths constrained by a graph topology. Moreover, the heterogeneity of real systems rules out frequency-based anomaly detection techniques, which do not account for highly skewed edge and degree statistics. To address this problem, we introduce HYPA, a novel framework for the unsupervised detection of anomalies in large corpora of variable-length temporal paths in a graph. HYPA provides an efficient analytical method to detect paths with anomalous frequencies that result from nodes being traversed in unexpected chronological order.

Abstract

Polarization is threatening the stability of democratic societies. Until now, polarization research has focused on opinion extremeness, overlooking the correlation between different policy issues. We explain the emergence of hyperpolarization, i.e. the combination of extremeness and correlation between issues, by developing Weighted Balance Theory (WBT), a new theory of opinion formation. WBT extends Heider’s cognitive balance theory to encompass multiple weighted attitudes. We validate WBT on empirical data from the 2016 National Election Survey. Furthermore, we develop an opinion dynamics model based on WBT, which, for the first time, is able to generate hyperpolarization and to explain the link between affective and opinion polarization. In addition, our theory encompasses other phenomena of opinion dynamics, including mono-polarization and backfire effects.

Abstract

Online social networks (OSN) are prime examples of socio-technical systems in which individuals interact via a technical platform. OSN are very volatile because users enter and exit and frequently change their interactions. This makes the robustness of such systems difficult to measure and to control. To quantify robustness, we propose a coreness value obtained from the directed interaction network. We study the emergence of large drop-out cascades of users leaving the OSN by means of an agent-based model. For agents, we define a utility function that depends on their relative reputation and their costs for interactions. The decision of agents to leave the OSN depends on this utility. Our aim is to prevent drop-out cascades by influencing specific agents with low utility. We identify strategies to control agents in the core and the periphery of the OSN such that drop-out cascades are significantly reduced, and the robustness of the OSN is increased.

Abstract

To what extent is the citation rate of new papers influenced by the past social relations of their authors? To answer this question, we present a data-driven analysis of nine different physics journals. Our analysis is based on a two-layer network representation constructed from two large-scale data sets, INSPIREHEP and APS. The social layer contains authors as nodes and coauthorship relations as links. This allows us to quantify the social relations of each author, prior to the publication of a new paper. The publication layer contains papers as nodes and citations between papers as links. This layer allows us to quantify scientific attention as measured by the change of the citation rate over time. We particularly study how this change correlates with the social relations of their authors, prior to publication. We find that on average the maximum value of the citation rate is reached sooner for authors who have either published more papers or who have had more coauthors in previous papers. We also find that for these authors the decay in the citation rate is faster, meaning that their papers are forgotten sooner.

Abstract

We analyze an agent-based model to estimate how the costs and benefits of users in an online social network (OSN) impact the robustness of the OSN. Benefits are measured in terms of relative reputation that users receives from their followers. They can be increased by direct and indirect reciprocity in following each other, which leads to a core-periphery structure of the OSN. Costs relate to the effort to login, to maintain the profile, etc. and are assumed as constant for all users. The robustness of the OSN depends on the entry and exit of users over time. Intuitively, one would expect that higher costs lead to more users leaving and hence to a less robust OSN. We demonstrate that an optimal cost level exists, which maximizes both the performance of the OSN, measured by means of the long-term average benefit of its users, and the robustness of the OSN, measured by means of the life-time of the core of the OSN. Our mathematical and computational analyses unfold how changes in the cost level impact reciprocity and subsequently the core-periphery structure of the OSN, to explain the optimal cost level.

Abstract

We provide an agent-based model to explain the emergence of collective opinions not based on feedback between different opinions, but based on emotional interactions between agents. The driving variable is the emotional state of agents, characterized by their valence, quantifying the emotion from unpleasant to pleasant, and their arousal, quantifying the degree of activity associated with the emotion. Both determine their emotional expression, from which collective emotional information is generated. This information feeds back on the dynamics of emotional states and individual opinions in a nonlinear manner. We derive the critical conditions for emotional interactions to obtain either consensus or polarization of opinions. Stochastic agent-based simulations and formal analyses of the model explain our results. Possible ways to validate the model are discussed.

Abstract

The law of proportionate growth simply states that the time dependent change of a quantity $x$ is proportional to $x$. Its applicability to a wide range of dynamic phenomena is based on various assumptions for the proportionality factor, which can be random or deterministic, constant or time dependent. Further, the dynamics can be combined with additional additive growth terms, which can be constants, aggregated quantities, or interaction terms. This allows to extent the core dynamics into an agent-based modeling framework with vast applications in social and economic systems. The paper adopts this overarching perspective to discuss phenomena as diverse as saturated growth, competition, stochastic growth, investments in random environments, wealth redistribution, opinion dynamics and the wisdom of crowds, reputation dynamics, knowledge growth, and the combination with network dynamics.

Abstract

Data from software repositories have become an important foundation for the empirical study of software engineering processes. A recurring theme in the repository mining literature is the inference of developer networks capturing e.g. collaboration, coordination, or communication from the commit history of projects. Most of the studied networks are based on the co-authorship of software artefacts. Because this neglects detailed information on code changes and code ownership we introduce git2net, a scalable python software that facilitates the extraction of fine-grained co-editing networks in large git repositories. It uses text mining techniques to analyse the detailed history of textual modifications within files. We apply our tool in two case studies using GitHub repositories of multiple Open Source as well as a commercial software project. Specifically, we use data on more than 1.2 million commits and more than 25'000 developers to test a hypothesis on the relation between developer productivity and co-editing patterns in software teams. We argue that git2net opens up a massive new source of high-resolution data on human collaboration patterns that can be used to advance theory in empirical software engineering, computational social science, and organisational studies.

Abstract

We provide a novel family of generative block-models for random graphs that naturally incorporates degree distributions: the block-constrained configuration model. Block-constrained configuration models build on the generalized hypergeometric ensemble of random graphs and extend the well-known configuration model by enforcing block-constraints on the edge-generating process. The resulting models are practical to fit even to large networks. These models provide a new, flexible tool for the study of community structure and for network science in general, where modeling networks with heterogeneous degree distributions is of central importance.

Abstract

Communal roosting in Bechstein's bat colonies is characterized by the formation of several groups that use different day roosts and that regularly dissolve and re-merge (fission-fusion dynamics). Analyzing data from two colonies of different size over many years, we find that (i) the number of days bats stay in the same roost before changing follows an exponential distribution that is independent of the colony size, and (ii) the number and size of groups bats formed for roosting depend on the size of the colony such that above a critical colony size two to six groups of different sizes are formed. To model these two observations, we propose an agent-based model in which agents make their decisions about roosts based on both random and social influences. For the latter, they copy the roost preference of another agent which models the transfer of the respective information. Our model is able to reproduce both the distribution of stay length in the same roost and the emergence of groups of different sizes dependent on the colony size. Moreover, we are able to predict the critical system size at which the formation of different groups emerges without global coordination. We further comment on dynamics that bridge the roosting decisions on short time scale (less than one day) with the social structures observed at long time scales (more than one year).

Abstract

Leading-following behaviour in Bechstein's bats transfers information about suitable roost sites from experienced to inexperienced individuals, and thus ensures communal roosting. We analyze 9 empirical data sets about individualized leading-following (L/F) events, to infer rules that likely determine the formation of L/F pairs. To test these rules, we propose five models that differ regarding the empirical information taken into account to form L/F pairs: activity of a bat in exploring possible roosts, tendency to lead and to follow. The comparison with empirical data was done by constructing social networks from the observed L/F events, on which centralities were calculated to quantify the importance of individuals in these L/F networks. The centralities from the empirical network are then compared for statistical differences with the model-generated centralities obtained from $10^{5}$ model realizations. We find that two models perform well in comparison with the empirical data: One model assumes an individual tendency to lead, but chooses followers at random. The other model assumes an individual tendency to follow and chooses leaders according to their overall activity. We note that neither individual preferences for specific individuals, nor other influences such as kinship or reciprocity, are taken into account to reproduce the empirical findings.

Abstract

We propose a new measure to quantify the impact of a node $i$ in controlling a directed network. This measure, called ``control contribution'' $_(i)$, combines the probability for node $i$ to appear in a set of driver nodes and the probability for other nodes to be controlled by $i$. To calculate $_(i)$, we propose an optimization method based on random samples of minimum sets of drivers. Using real-world and synthetic networks, we find very broad distributions of $C_(i)$. Ranking nodes according to their $C_(i)$ values allows us to identify the top driver nodes that can control most of the network. We show that this ranking is superior to rankings based on other control-based measures. We find that control contribution indeed contains new information that cannot be traced back to degree, control capacity or control range of a node.

Abstract

We consider a multi-layer network with two layers, $\_1\$, $\_2\$. Their intra-layer topology shows a scale-free degree distribution and a core-periphery structure. A nested structure describes the inter-layer topology, i.e., some nodes from $\_1\$, the generalists, have many links to nodes in $\_2\$, specialists only have a few. This structure is verified by analyzing two empirical networks from ecology and economics. To probe the robustness of the multi-layer network, we remove nodes from $\_1\$ with their inter-and intra-layer links and measure the impact on the size of the largest connected component, $F_2\$, in $\_2\$, which we take as a robustness measure. We test different attack scenarios by preferably removing peripheral or core nodes. We also vary the intra-layer coupling between generalists and specialists, to study their impact on the robustness of the multi-layer network. We find that some combinations of attack scenario and intra-layer coupling lead to very low robustness values, whereas others demonstrate high robustness of the multi-layer network because of the intra-layer links. Our results shed new light on the robustness of bipartite networks, which consider only inter-layer, but no intra-layer links.

Abstract

This paper proposes a Gaussian process-based self-organizing incremental neural network (GPINN) to address the density estimation problem of online unsupervised learning. First, we adopt Gaussian process models with adaptive kernels that map the distribution of the neighbors of each node to its link relationship. Second, combining GPINN and kernel density estimation, we derive the bandwidth matrix updating rule for adapting to the generated network. We theoretically analyze the advantages of the proposed approach in determining threshold regions over using distance measures. The experimental results on both synthetic data sets and real-world data sets show that our method achieves remarkable improvement in density estimation accuracy for large noisy data.

Abstract

Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either for trade or food processing. In consequence, we find that the trade networks become more prone to failure cascades caused by exogenous shocks. In our model, countries compensate for demand deficits by imposing export restrictions. To capture these, we construct higher-order trade dependency networks for the different crops and years. These networks reveal hidden dependencies between countries and provide an estimate of necessary stock reserves to protect countries from cascading export restrictions. They differ substantially from first order networks that do not take cascading effects into account. We find rice trade most prone to cascading export restrictions. A great number of Asian and African countries are most exposed to cascades. Noticeably, the main suppliers are similar for most of the crops: USA, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, and India. While shocks in the USA mainly affect South America and several Asian countries, the south of Africa is primarily dependent on American and Asian exporters. The north of Africa depends strongly on Europe, in particular via wheat imports.

Abstract

Relational event models are becoming increasingly popular in modeling temporal dynamics of social networks. Due to their nature of combining survival analysis with network model terms, standard methods of assessing model fit are not suitable to determine if the models are specified sufficiently to prevent biased estimates. This paper tackles this problem by presenting a simple procedure for model-based simulations of relational events. Predictions are made based on survival probabilities and can be used to simulate new event sequences. Comparing these simulated event sequences to the original event sequence allows for in depth model comparisons (including parameter as well as model specifications) and testing of whether the model can replicate network characteristics sufficiently to allow for unbiased estimates.

Abstract

We quantify a social organization's potentiality, that is its ability to attain different configurations. The organization is represented as a network in which nodes correspond to individuals and (multi-)edges to their multiple interactions. Attainable configurations are treated as realizations from a network ensemble. To encode interaction preferences between individuals, we choose the generalized hypergeometric ensemble of random graphs, which is described by a closed-form probability distribution. From this distribution we calculate Shannon entropy as a measure of potentiality. This allows us to compare different organizations as well different stages in the development of a given organization. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated using data from 3 empirical and 2 synthetic systems.

Abstract

Multi-edge networks capture repeated interactions between individuals. In social networks, such edges often form closed triangles, or triads. Standard approaches to measure this triadic closure, however, fail for multi-edge networks, because they do not consider that triads can be formed by edges of different multiplicity. We propose a novel measure of triadic closure for multi-edge networks of social interactions based on a shared partner statistic. We demonstrate that our operalization is able to detect meaningful closure in synthetic and empirical multi-edge networks, where common approaches fail. This is a cornerstone in driving inferential network analyses from the analysis of binary networks towards the analyses of multi-edge and weighted networks, which offer a more realistic representation of social interactions and relations.

Abstract

Data from software repositories have become an important foundation for the empirical study of software engineering processes. A recurring theme in the repository mining literature is the inference of developer networks capturing e.g. collaboration, coordination, or communication from the commit history of projects. Most of the studied networks are based on the co-authorship of software artefacts defined at the level of files, modules, or packages. While this approach has led to insights into the social aspects of software development, it neglects detailed information on code changes and code ownership, e.g. which exact lines of code have been authored by which developers, that is contained in the commit log of software projects. Addressing this issue, we introduce git2net, a scalable python software that facilitates the extraction of fine-grained co-editing networks in large git repositories. It uses text mining techniques to analyse the detailed history of textual modifications within files. This information allows us to construct directed, weighted, and time-stamped networks, where a link signifies that one developer has edited a block of source code originally written by another developer. Our tool is applied in case studies of an Open Source and a commercial software project. We argue that it opens up a massive new source of high-resolution data on human collaboration patterns.

Abstract

How big is the risk that a few initial failures of networked nodes amplify to large cascades that endanger the functioning of the system? Common answers refer to the average final cascade size. Two analytic approaches allow its computation: a) (heterogeneous) mean field approximation and b) belief propagation. The former applies to (infinitely) large locally tree-like networks, while the latter is exact on finite trees. Yet, cascade sizes can have broad and multi-modal distributions that are not well represented by their average. Full distribution information is essential to identify likely events and to estimate the tail risk, i.e. the probability of extreme events. We therefore present an efficient message passing algorithm that calculates the cascade size distribution in finite networks. It is exact on finite trees and for a large class of cascade processes. An approximate version applies to any network structure and performs well on locally tree-like networks, as we show with several examples.

Abstract

We propose a novel way to measure the reputation of firms by using information about their ownership structure. Supported by the signaling theory, we argue that ownership relations channel reputation spillovers between shareholders and their invested companies. We model such reputation spillovers by means of a simple dynamics that runs on the ownership network, constructed from available data bases. We focus on the core of the global ownership network with 1'300 firms and 12'100 ownership links. Our method assigns a ownership-based reputation value to each firm, used to provide a quantitative reputation ranking. We compare our ranking with alternative rankings, to confirm that the top ranked firms are correctly identified. We also demonstrate that our reputation measure does not correlate substantially with operating revenue or control and thus provides additional information about firms.

Abstract

System design – the term immediately evokes associations with the freedoms of a divine creator. However, it is precisely this idea that already describes the problem: like any other design, system design must respect certain boundaries, but the complexity of the design is far greater. Before we can even formulate systems design questions, we must first clarify what we want to mean by a system, which approach we choose to system modelling, and how we validate these models. This addresses the methodological-technical aspects of systems design. The methodological-critical perspective focuses on the limits of systems design. What do we actually want to achieve with systems design? It doesn't take long to draw up a wish list. But how meaningful or feasible are these wishes? Here, we must critically question our expectations.

Abstract

Active matter, as other types of self-organizing systems, relies on the take-up of energy that can be used for different actions, such as active motion or structure formation. Here we provide an agent-based framework to model these processes at different levels of organization, physical, biological and social, using the same dynamic approach. Driving variables describe the take-up, storage and conversion of energy, whereas driven variables describe the energy consuming activities. The stochastic dynamics of both types of variables follow a modified Langevin equation. Additional non-linear functions allow to encode system-specific hypotheses about the relation between driving and driven variables. To demonstrate the applicability of this framework, we recast a number of existing models of Brownian agents and Active Brownian Particles. Specifically, active motion, clustering and self-wiring of networks based on chemotactic interactions, online communication and polarization of opinions based on emotional influence are discussed. The framework allows to obtain critical parameters for active motion and the emergence of collective phenomena. This highlights the role of energy take-up and dissipation in obtaining different dynamic regimes.

Abstract

How are economic activities linked to geographic locations? To answer this question, we use a data-driven approach that builds on the information about location, ownership and economic activities of the world's 3,000 largest firms and their almost one million subsidiaries. From this information we generate a bipartite network of cities linked to economic activities. Analysing the structure of this network, we find striking similarities with nested networks observed in ecology, where links represent mutualistic interactions between species. This motivates us to apply ecological indicators to identify the unbalanced deployment of economic activities. Such deployment can lead to an over-representation of specific economic sectors in a given city, and poses a significant thread for the city's future especially in times when the over-represented activities face economic uncertainties. If we compare our analysis with external rankings about the quality of life in a city, we find that the nested structure of the city-firm network also reflects such information about the quality of life, which can usually be assessed only via dedicated survey-based indicators.

Abstract

Multiplex and Multilayer Networks is a collection of some of the results obtained in the new field of complex networks theory with respect to multilevel, multiplex, and interacting networks. The ever-increasing availability of data in fields ranging from computer science to urban systems, medicine, economics, and finance shows that networks that were usually perceived as distinct and isolated are, in reality, interacting with other networks. While this sounds like a trivial observation, the interactions in multilevel complex networks can lead to unexpected behaviors and allow systemic vulnerabilities to emerge. The research activities of many different laboratories and groups in this field have been financed by the EU MULTIPLEX project (http://www.multiplexproject.eu). This project utilized 23 distinct research teams across Europe and, from 2012 to 2016, explored this new area of research. The results, presented in this volume, range from the theory of static multinetworks to dynamical process on them, to their percolating properties, and, finally, to applications in the case of social systems.

Abstract

We introduce a broad class of random graph models: the generalised hypergeometric ensemble (GHypEG). This class enables to solve some long-standing problems in random graph theory. First, GHypEG provides an elegant and compact formulation of the well-known configuration model in terms of an urn problem. Second, GHypEG allows incorporating arbitrary tendencies to connect different vertex pairs. Third, we present the closed-form expressions of the associated probability distribution ensures the analytical tractability of our formulation. This is in stark contrast with the previous state-of-the-art, which is to implement the configuration model by means of computationally expensive procedures.

Abstract

Controllability, a basic property of various networked systems, has gained profound theoretical applications in complex social, technological, biological, and brain networks. Yet, little attention has been given to the control trajectory (route), along which a controllable system can be controlled from any initial to any final state, hampering the implementation of practical control. Here we systematically uncover the fundamental relations between control trajectory and several other key factors, such as the control distance between initial and final states ($\delta$), number of driver nodes, and the control time. The length ($\mathcal{L}$) and maximum distance to the initial state ($\mathcal{R}$) are employed to quantify the locality and globality of control trajectories. We analyze how the scaling behavior of the averaged $\mathcal{L}$ and $\mathcal{R}$ changes with increasing $\delta$ for different initial states. After showing the scaling behavior for each trajectory, we also provide the distributions of $\mathcal{L}$ and $\mathcal{R}$. Further attention is given to the control time $t_f$ and its influence on $\mathcal{L}$ and $\mathcal{R}$. Our results provide comprehensive insights in understanding control trajectories for complex networks, and pave the way to achieve practical control in various real systems.

Abstract

How big is the risk that a few initial failures of nodes in a network amplify to large cascades that span a substantial share of all nodes? Predicting the final cascade size is critical to ensure the functioning of a system as a whole. Yet, this task is hampered by uncertain or changing parameters and missing information. In infinitely large networks, the average cascade size can often be well estimated by established approaches building on local tree approximations and mean field approximations. Yet, as we demonstrate, in finite networks, this average does not even need to be a likely outcome. Instead, we find broad and even bimodal cascade size distributions. This phenomenon persists for system sizes up to 10 7 and different cascade models, i.e. it is relevant for most real systems. To show this, we derive explicit closed-form solutions for the full probability distribution of the final cascade size. We focus on two topological limit cases, the complete network representing a dense network with a very narrow degree distribution, and the star network representing a sparse network with a inhomogeneous degree distribution. Those topologies are of great interest, as they either minimize or maximize the average cascade size and are common motifs in many real world networks.

Abstract

To the extent that individuals interact with each other in prescribed ways, their collective social behavior can be modeled and analyzed. Twenty-four years ago Paul Krugman, who went on to receive the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, wrote, “Economics is harder than physics; luckily it is not quite as hard as sociology.”1 Thirteen years ago Doyne Farmer, Martin Shubik, and Eric Smith posed the question, Is economics the next physical science? (see Physics Today, September 2005, page 37). If you were skeptical then about sociology as the next physical science, you may be even more skeptical now.

Abstract

We propose a model that reflects two important processes in R&D activities of firms, the formation of R&D alliances and the exchange of knowledge as a result of these collaborations. In a data-driven approach, we analyze two large-scale data sets extracting unique information about 7500 R&D alliances and 5200 patent portfolios of firms. This data is used to calibrate the model parameters for network formation and knowledge exchange. We obtain probabilities for incumbent and newcomer firms to link to other incumbents or newcomers which are able to reproduce the topology of the empirical R&D network. The position of firms in a knowledge space is obtained from their patents using two different classification schemes, IPC in 8 dimensions and ISI-OST-INPI in 35 dimensions. Our dynamics of knowledge exchange assumes that collaborating firms approach each other in knowledge space at a rate $μ$ for an alliance duration $τ$. Both parameters are obtained in two different ways, by comparing knowledge distances from simulations and empirics and by analyzing the collaboration efficiency $\hat{C}_n$. This is a new measure, that takes also in account the effort of firms to maintain concurrent alliances, and is evaluated via extensive computer simulations. We find that R&D alliances have a duration of around two years and that the subsequent knowledge exchange occurs at a very low rate. Hence, a firm's position in the knowledge space is rather a determinant than a consequence of its R&D alliances. From our data-driven approach we also find model configurations that can be both realistic and optimized with respect to the collaboration efficiency $\hat{C}_n$. Effective policies, as suggested by our model, would incentivize shorter R&D alliances and higher knowledge exchange rates.

Abstract

Two node variables determine the evolution of cascades in random networks: a node's degree and threshold. Correlations between both fundamentally change the robustness of a network, yet, they are disregarded in standard analytic methods as local tree or heterogeneous mean field approximations because of the bad tractability of order statistics. We show how they become tractable in the thermodynamic limit of infinite network size. This enables the analytic description of node attacks that are characterized by threshold allocations based on node degree. Using two examples, we discuss possible implications of irregular phase transitions and different speeds of cascade evolution for the control of cascades.

Abstract

We present a framework to calculate the cascade size evolution for a large class of cascade models on random network ensembles in the limit of infinite network size. Our method is exact and applies to network ensembles with almost arbitrary degree distribution, degree-degree correlations and, in case of threshold models, for arbitrary threshold distribution. With our approach, we shift the perspective from the known branching process approximations to the iterative update of suitable probability distributions. Such distributions are key to capture cascade dynamics that involve possibly continuous quantities and that depend on the cascade history, e.g. if load is accumulated over time. As a proof of concept, we provide two examples: (a) Constant load models that cover many of the analytically tractable casacade models, and, as a highlight, (b) a fiber bundle model that was not tractable by branching process approximations before. Our derivations cover the whole cascade dynamics, not only their steady state. This allows to include interventions in time or further model complexity in the analysis.

Abstract

We study the role of geography in R&D networks by means of a quantitative, micro-geographic approach. Using a large database that covers international R&D collaborations from 1984 to 2009, we localize each actor precisely in space through its latitude and longitude. This allows us to analyze the R&D network at all geographic scales simultaneously. Our empirical results show that despite the high importance of the city level, transnational R&D collaborations at large distances are much more frequent than expected from similar networks. This provides evidence for the ambiguity of distance in economic cooperation which is also suggested by the existing literature. In addition we test whether the hypothesis of local buzz and global pipelines applies to the observed R&D network by calculating well-defined metrics from network theory.

Abstract

From the perspective of innovation economics evolving institutions, innovating entrepreneurs, technological change, and creative destruction are the driving force of economic growth (Schumpeter, 1942). To mitigate the uncertainty involved in the creation of new processes, products, or business models, innovation exhibits an intrinsic collaborative nature. Innovator networks form through formal and informal collaborations between different agents, including firms, institutions, universities, state agencies, inventors, and other stakeholders of the innovation system. Being embedded in a network enables these agents to coordinate innovative efforts, as well as to pool and jointly create knowledge.

Abstract

Users of social media are not only producers and consumers of online content, they also evaluate each other’s content. Some social media include the possibility to down vote or dislike the content posted by other users, posing the risk that users who receive dislikes might be more likely to become inactive, especially if the disliked content is about a person. We analyzed the data on more than 150,000 YouTube videos to understand how video impact and user incentives can be related to the possibility to dislike user content. We processed images related to videos to identify faces and quantify if evaluating content related to people is connected to disliking patterns. We found that videos with faces on their images tend to have less dislikes if they are posted by male users, but the effect is not present for female users. On the contrary, videos with faces and posted by female users attract more views and likes. Analyzing the probability of users to become inactive, we find that receiving dislikes is associated with users becoming inactive. This pattern is stronger when dislikes are given to videos with faces, showing that negative evaluations about people have a stronger association with user inactivity. Our results show that user evaluations in social media are a multi-faceted phenomenon that requires large-scale quantitative analyses, identifying under which conditions users disencourage other users from being active in social media.

Abstract

The authors develop an agent-based model to reproduce the size distribution of R&D alliances of firms. Agents are uniformly selected to initiate an alliance and to invite collaboration partners. These decide about acceptance based on an individual threshold that is compared with the utility expected from joining the current alliance. The benefit of alliances results from the fitness of the agents involved. Fitness is obtained from an empirical distribution of agent's activities. The cost of an alliance reflects its coordination effort. Two free parameters ac and a1 scale the costs and the individual threshold. If initiators receive R rejections of invitations, the alliance formation stops and another initiator is selected. The three free parameters (ac; a1; R) are calibrated against a large scale data set of about 15,000 firms engaging in about 15,000 R&D alliances over 26 years. For the validation of the model the authors compare the empirical size distribution with the theoretical one, using confidence bands, to find a very good agreement. As an asset of our agent-based model, they provide an analytical solution that allows to reduce the simulation effort considerably. The analytical solution applies to general forms of the utility of alliances. Hence, the model can be extended to other cases of alliance formation. While no information about the initiators of an alliance is available, the results indicate that mostly firms with high fitness are able to attract newcomers and to establish larger alliances.

Abstract

In engineering, the term "scaling" may be used to describe a relation between objects and their models. In the exact sciences, however, scaling is a systemic property, i.e. it relates to the system itself and not to our perception of it. Scaling describes how certain system properties change conditional on others, most notably the system size. Certain systems are characterized by a natural scale which remains constant even if the system size increases. Such systems are often described by the so-called normal distribution and are very predictable with respect to that scale, or quantity. Other systems are scale-free in the sense that no characteristic scale exists. Such systems are characterised by very broad distributions. This means everything can happen with a non-negligible probability. Such considerations imply that the system properties do not change with scale other than the way defined by the distributions. But complex systems, i.e. systems consisting of a large number of interacting elements (usually denoted as agents), also have the property of emergence. This describes the sudden occurrence of new system qualities once certain critical parameters are reached. This means, above a certain system size the system behaves completely different. Sometimes, it is very difficult to predict when this critical size is reached. Most real complex systems are characterized both by emergent properties and by scaling laws that do not simply follow a power-law behavior. Economic systems, for example, are often described by decreasing returns to scale. Conclusion: there are several limits to scaling: (i) natural scales, which are system immanent, (ii) critical parameters at which system properties change in a discontinuous manner, i.e. new system qualities emerge, (iii) decreasing returns to scale, which render any further growth unprofitable.

Abstract

We develop a location analysis spatial model of firms' competition in multi-characteristics space, where consumers' opinions about the firms' products are distributed on multilayered networks. Firms do not compete on price but only on location upon the products' multi-characteristics space, and they aim to attract the maximum number of consumers. Boundedly rational consumers have distinct ideal points/tastes over the possible available firm locations but, crucially, they are affected by the opinions of their neighbors. Proposing a dynamic agent-based analysis on firms' location choice we characterize multi-dimensional product differentiation competition as adaptive learning by firms' managers and we argue that such a complex systems approach advances the analysis in alternative ways, beyond game-theoretic calculations.

Abstract

Social interaction and data integration in the digital society can affect the control that individuals have on their privacy. Social networking sites can access data from other services, including user contact lists where nonusers are listed too. Although most research on online privacy has focused on inference of personal information of users, this data integration poses the question of whether it is possible to predict personal information of nonusers. This article tests the shadow profile hypothesis, which postulates that the data given by the users of an online service predict personal information of nonusers. Using data from a disappeared social networking site, we perform a historical audit to evaluate whether personal data of nonusers could have been predicted with the personal data and contact lists shared by the users of the site. We analyze personal information of sexual orientation and relationship status, which follow regular mixing patterns in the social network. Going back in time over the growth of the network, we measure predictor performance as a function of network size and tendency of users to disclose their contact lists. This article presents robust evidence supporting the shadow profile hypothesis and reveals a multiplicative effect of network size and disclosure tendencies that accelerates the performance of predictors. These results call for new privacy paradigms that take into account the fact that individual privacy decisions do not happen in isolation and are mediated by the decisions of others.

Abstract

The inference of network topologies from relational data is an important problem in data analysis. Exemplary applications include the reconstruction of social ties from data on human interactions, the inference of gene co-expression networks from DNA microarray data, or the learning of semantic relationships based on co-occurrences of words in documents. Solving these problems requires techniques to infer significant links in noisy relational data. In this short paper, we propose a new statistical modeling framework to address this challenge. It builds on generalized hypergeometric ensembles, a class of generative stochastic models that give rise to analytically tractable probability spaces of directed, multi-edge graphs. We show how this framework can be used to assess the significance of links in noisy relational data. We illustrate our method in two data sets capturing spatio-temporal proximity relations between actors in a social system. The results show that our analytical framework provides a new approach to infer significant links from relational data, with interesting perspectives for the mining of data on social systems.

Abstract

We analyze large-scale data sets about collaborations from two different domains: economics, specifically 22.000 R&D alliances between 14.500 firms, and science, specifically 300.000 co-authorship relations between 95.000 scientists. Considering the different domains of the data sets, we address two questions: (a) to what extent do the collaboration networks reconstructed from the data share common structural features, and (b) can their structure be reproduced by the same agent-based model. In our data-driven modeling approach we use aggregated network data to calibrate the probabilities at which agents establish collaborations with either newcomers or established agents. The model is then validated by its ability to reproduce network features not used for calibration, including distributions of degrees, path lengths, local clustering coefficients and sizes of disconnected components. Emphasis is put on comparing domains, but also sub-domains (economic sectors, scientific specializations). Interpreting the link probabilities as strategies for link formation, we find that in R&D collaborations newcomers prefer links with established agents, while in co-authorship relations newcomers prefer links with other newcomers. Our results shed new light on the long-standing question about the role of endogenous and exogenous factors (i.e., different information available to the initiator of a collaboration) in network formation.

Abstract

It is widely recognized that citation counts for papers from different fields cannot be directly compared because different scientific fields adopt different citation practices. Citation counts are also strongly biased by paper age since older papers had more time to attract citations. Various procedures aim at suppressing these biases and give rise to new normalized indicators, such as the relative citation count. We use a large citation dataset from Microsoft Academic Graph and a new statistical framework based on the Mahalanobis distance to show that the rankings by well known indicators, including the relative citation count and Google's PageRank score, are significantly biased by paper field and age. Our statistical framework to assess ranking bias allows us to exactly quantify the contributions of each individual field to the overall bias of a given ranking. We propose a general normalization procedure motivated by the z-score which produces much less biased rankings when applied to citation count and PageRank score.

Abstract

In this manuscript, we show how higher-order graphical models can be applied to study the controllability of networked systems with dynamic topologies. Studying empirical data on temporal networks, we specifically show that the order correlations in the activation sequence of links can both increase or reduce the time needed to achieve full controllability. We then demonstrate how spectral properties of higher-order graphical models can be used to analytically explain the effect of order correlations on controllability in temporal networks.

Abstract

We introduce a framework for the modeling of sequential data capturing pathways of varying lengths observed in a network. Such data are important, e.g., when studying click streams in information networks, travel patterns in transportation systems, information cascades in social networks, biological pathways or time-stamped social interactions. While it is common to apply graph analytics and network analysis to such data, recent works have shown that temporal correlations can invalidate the results of such methods. This raises a fundamental question: when is a network abstraction of sequential data justified? Addressing this open question, we propose a framework which combines Markov chains of multiple, higher orders into a multi-layer graphical model that captures temporal correlations in pathways at multiple length scales simultaneously. We develop a model selection technique to infer the optimal number of layers of such a model and show that it outperforms previously used Markov order detection techniques. An application to eight real-world data sets on pathways and temporal networks shows that it allows to infer graphical models which capture both topological and temporal characteristics of such data. Our work highlights fallacies of network abstractions and provides a principled answer to the open question when they are justified. Generalizing network representations to multi-order graphical models, it opens perspectives for new data mining and knowledge discovery algorithms.

Abstract

We introduce a statistical method to investigate the impact of dyadic relations on complex networks generated from repeated interactions. It is based on generalised hypergeometric ensembles, a class of statistical network ensembles developed recently. We represent different types of known relations between system elements by weighted graphs, separated in the different layers of a multiplex network. With our method we can regress the influence of each relational layer, the independent variables, on the interaction counts, the dependent variables. Moreover, we can test the statistical significance of the relations as explanatory variables for the observed interactions. To demonstrate the power of our approach and its broad applicability, we will present examples based on synthetic and empirical data.

Abstract

In this article we study to what extent the academic peer review pro-cess is influenced by social relations between the authors of a manuscript and the editor handling the manuscript. Taking the Open Access journal PlosOne as a case study, our analysis is based on a data set of more than 100,000 articles pub-lished between 2007 and 2015. Using available data on handling editor, submission and acceptance time of manuscripts, we study the question whether co-authorship relations between authors and the handling editor affect the manuscript handling time, i.e. the time taken between the submission and acceptance of a manuscript. Our analysis reveals (i) that editors handle papers co-authored by previous col-laborators significantly more often than expected at random, and (ii) that such prior co-author relations are significantly related to faster manuscript handling. Addressing the question whether these shorter manuscript handling times can be explained by the quality of publications, we study the number of citations and downloads which accepted papers eventually accumulate. Moreover, we consider the influence of additional (social) factors, such as the editor’s experience, the top-ical similarity between authors and editors, as well as reciprocal citation relations between authors and editors. Our findings show that, even when correcting for other factors like time, experience, and performance, prior co-authorship relations have a large and significant influence on manuscript handling times, speeding up the editorial decision on average by 19 days.

Abstract

Quantitative analysis of the empirical data from online social networks reveals the occurrence of group dynamics in which the user’s emotions are involved. Full understanding of the underlying mechanisms, however, remains a challenging task. Using agent-based computer simulations, in this work we study the dynamics of emotional communications in online social networks. The rules that guide how the agents interact, are motivated by actual online social systems. The realistic network structure and some key parameters are inferred from the empirical dataset compiled from the MySpace social network. An agent’s emotional state is characterized by two variables representing emotional arousal—reactivity to stimuli, and valence—attractiveness or averseness, by which a commonly known emotion can be identified. Elevated arousal triggers an agent’s action. In the simulations, each message is identified as carrying an agent’s emotion along a network link; an aggregated and continuously aging impact of these messages on the recipient agent is considered. Our results indicate that group behavior may arise from individual emotional actions of agents; the collective states appear, which are characterized by temporal correlations and predominantly positive emotions, in analogy to the empirical system; the driving signal—rate of the user stepping into the online world—has a profound effect on building the coherent behaviors that are observed in online social networks. Moreover, our simulations suggest that spreading patterns may differ for the emotions with the entirely different positive and negative emotional content.

Abstract

Online communication takes a variety of shapes in the different technological media that allow users interact with each other, with their friends, or with arbitrarily large groups. These serve as breeding grounds for collective emotions, in which large amounts of users share emotional states through time. We present our modeling framework for collective emotions in online communities, which can be adapted for the different kinds of online interaction present in the cyberspace. This framework allows the design of agent-based models, in which agents’ emotional states are represented according to psychological theories. This approach aims at a unification of modeling efforts, connecting the sentiment analysis of big data with psychological experiments, through tractable agent-based models. We illustrate the applications of this framework to different online communities, including product reviews, chatrooms, virtual realities, and social networking sites. We show how our model reproduces properties of collective emotions in the reviews of Amazon, and the group discussions of IRC channels. We comment the applications of this framework for data-driven simulation of emotions, and how we formulate testable hypotheses of emotion dynamics for future research on the field.

Abstract

Computer-mediated communication between humans is at the center of the formation of collective emotions on the Internet. This chapter presents how interactive affective systems can be applied in order to study the role of emotion in online communication at the micro-scale, i.e. between individual users or between users and artificial communication partners. Specifically, we report on the effect of a simulated conversational partner’s affective profile, the use of fine-grained communication scenarios and social interaction context on changes in emotional states and expressed affect of users as well as their communication patterns. Based on these findings, we propose applications for such systems focused on supporting different e-communities with real-time information and discuss ethical implications of such systems.

Abstract

The pervasive presence of online media in our society has transferred a significant part of political deliberation to online forums and social networking sites. This article examines popularity, reputation, and social influence on Twitter using large-scale digital traces from 2009 to 2016. We process network information on more than 40 million users, calculating new global measures of reputation that build on the D-core decomposition and the bow-tie structure of the Twitter follower network. We integrate our measurements of popularity, reputation, and social influence to evaluate what keeps users active, what makes them more popular, and what determines their influence. We find that there is a range of values in which the risk of a user becoming inactive grows with popularity and reputation. Popularity in Twitter resembles a proportional growth process that is faster in its strongly connected component, and that can be accelerated by reputation when users are already popular. We find that social influence on Twitter is mainly related to popularity rather than reputation, but that this growth of influence with popularity is sublinear. The explanatory and predictive power of our method shows that global network metrics are better predictors of inactivity and social influence, calling for analyses that go beyond local metrics like the number of followers.

Abstract

Drawing on a large database of publicly announced R&D alliances, we empirically investigate the evolution of R&D networks and the process of alliance formation in several manufacturing sectors over a 24-year period (1986-2009). Our goal is to empirically evaluate the temporal and sectoral robustness of a large set of network indicators, thus providing a more complete description of R&D networks with respect to the existing literature. We find that most network properties are not only invariant across sectors, but also independent of the scale of aggregation at which they are observed, and we highlight the presence of core-periphery architectures in explaining some properties emphasized in previous empirical studies (e.g. asymmetric degree distributions and small worlds). In addition, we show that many properties of R&D networks are characterized by a rise-and-fall dynamics with a peak in the mid-nineties. We find that such dynamics is driven by mechanisms of accumulative advantage, structural homophily and multiconnectivity. In particular, the change from the "rise" to the "fall" phase is associated to a structural break in the importance of multiconnectivity.

Abstract

This paper studies the selection of partners for R&D collaborations of firms both empirically, by analyzing a large data set of R&D alliances over 25 years, and theoretically, by utilizing an agent-based model of alliance formation. We quantify the topological position of a firm in the R&D network by means of the weighted k-core decomposition which assigns a coreness value to each firm. The evolution of these coreness values over time reconstructs the career path of individual firms, where lower coreness indicates a better integration of firms in an evolving R&D network. Using a large patent dataset, we demonstrate that coreness values strongly correlate with the number of patents of a firm. Analyzing coreness differences between firms and their partners, we identify a change in selecting partners: less integrated firms choose partners of similar coreness until they reach their best network position. After that, well integrated firms (with low coreness) choose preferably partners with high coreness, either newcomers or firms from the periphery. We use the agent-based model to test whether this change in behavior needs to be explained by means of strategic considerations, i.e. firms switching their strategy in choosing partners dependent on their network position. We find that the observed behavior can be well reproduced without such strategic considerations, this way challenging the role of strategies in explaining macro patterns of collaborations.

Abstract

This volume provides an introduction to and overview of the emerging field of interconnected networks which include multilayer or multiplex networks, as well as networks of networks. Such networks present structural and dynamical features quite different from those observed in isolated networks. The presence of links between different networks or layers of a network typically alters the way such interconnected networks behave – understanding the role of interconnecting links is therefore a crucial step towards a more accurate description of real-world systems. While examples of such dissimilar properties are becoming more abundant – for example regarding diffusion, robustness and competition – the root of such differences remains to be elucidated. Each chapter in this topical collection is self-contained and can be read on its own, thus making it also suitable as reference for experienced researchers wishing to focus on a particular topic.

Abstract

We explore the relationship between human migration and OECD’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) using a gravity equation enriched with variables that account for complex-network effects. Based on a panel data analysis, we find a strong positive correlation between the migration network and the FDI network, which can be mostly explained by countries’ economic/demographic sizes and geographical distance. We highlight the existence of a stronger positive FDI relationship in pairs of countries that are more central in the migration network. Both intensive and extensive forms of centrality are FDI enhancing. Illuminating this result, we show that bilateral FDI between any two countries is further affected positively by the complex web of 'third party' corridors/migration stocks of the international migration network. Our findings are consistent whether we consider bilateral FDI and bilateral migration figures, or we focus on the outward FDI and the respective inward migration of the OECD countries.

Abstract

We test the existence of anticipated shocks in online activity, a class of collective dynamics that does not fit in the state of the art theory on social response functions. We use data on shares and views to Youtube videos, measuring their time series to classify them according to their dynamical class. We find evidence of the existence of anticipated shocks, and that they are more likely to appear in word-of-mouth interaction than in attention dynamics. Our results show that not all exogenous events in online activity are unexpected, calling for new models that differentiate social interaction and attention dynamics.

Abstract

We study the changes in emotional states induced by reading and participating in online discussions, empirically testing a computational model of online emotional interaction. Using principles of dynamical systems, we quantify changes in valence and arousal through subjective reports, as recorded in three independent studies including 207 participants (110 female). In the context of online discussions, the dynamics of valence and arousal are composed of two forces: an internal relaxation towards baseline values independent of the emotional charge of the discussion, and a driving force of emotional states that depends on the content of the discussion. The dynamics of valence show the existence of positive and negative tendencies, while arousal increases when reading emotional content regardless of its polarity. The tendency of participants to take part in the discussion increases with positive arousal. When participating in an online discussion, the content of participants' expression depends on their valence, and their arousal significantly decreases afterwards as a regulation mechanism. We illustrate how these results allow the design of agent-based models to reproduce and analyze emotions in online communities. Our work empirically validates the microdynamics of a model of online collective emotions, bridging online data analysis with research in the laboratory.

Abstract

Statistical ensembles define probability spaces of all networks consistent with given aggregate statistics and have become instrumental in the analysis of relational data on networked systems. Their numerical and analytical study provides the foundation for the inference of topological patterns, the definition of network-analytic measures, as well as for model selection and statistical hypothesis testing. Contributing to the foundation of these important data science techniques, in this article we introduce generalized hypergeometric ensembles, a framework of analytically tractable statistical ensembles of finite, directed and weighted networks. This framework can be interpreted as a generalization of the classical configuration model, which is commonly used to randomly generate networks with a given degree sequence or distribution. Our generalization rests on the introduction of dyadic link propensities, which capture the degree-corrected tendencies of pairs of nodes to form edges between each other. Studying empirical and synthetic data, we show that our approach provides broad perspectives for community detection, model selection and statistical hypothesis testing.

Abstract

We study the influence of risk diversification on cascading failures in weighted complex networks, where weighted directed links represent exposures between nodes. These weights result from different diversification strategies and their adjustment allows us to reduce systemic risk significantly by topological means. As an example, we contrast a classical exposure diversification (ED) approach with a damage diversification (DD) variant. The latter reduces the loss that the failure of high degree nodes generally inflict to their network neighbors and thus hampers the cascade amplification. To quantify the final cascade size and obtain our results, we develop a branching process approximation taking into account that inflicted losses cannot only depend on properties of the exposed, but also of the failing node. This analytic extension is a natural consequence of the paradigm shift from individual to system safety. To deepen our understanding of the cascade process, we complement this systemic perspective by a mesoscopic one: an analysis of the failure risk of nodes dependent on their degree. Additionally, we ask for the role of these failures in the cascade amplification.

Abstract

Contributing to the writing of history has never been as easy as it is today thanks to Wikipedia, a community-created encyclopedia that aims to document the world's knowledge from a neutral point of view. Though everyone can participate it is well known that the editor community has a narrow diversity, with a majority of white male editors. While this participatory gender gap has been studied extensively in the literature, this work sets out to assess potential gender inequalities in Wikipedia articles along different dimensions: notability, topical focus, linguistic bias, structural properties and meta-data presentation. We find that (i) women in Wikipedia are more notable than men which we interpret as the outcome of a subtle glass ceiling effect; (ii) family-, gender-and relationship-related topics are more present in biographies about women; (iii) linguistic biases manifest in Wikipedia since abstract terms tend to be used to describe positive aspects in the biographies of men and negative aspects in the biographies of women; and (iv) there are structural differences in terms of meta-data and hyperlinks, which have consequences for information-seeking activities. While some differences are expected, due to historical and social contexts, other differences are attributable to Wikipedia editors. The implications of such differences are discussed, specially having Wikipedia contribution policies in mind. We hope that our work contributes to increase awareness about, first, gender issues in the content of Wikipedia, and second, the different levels on which gender biases can manifest on the Web.

Abstract

This paper investigates the process of knowledge exchange in inter-firm Research and Development (R&D) alliances by means of an agent-based model. Extant research has pointed out that firms select alliance partners considering both network-related and network-unrelated features (e.g., social capital versus complementary knowledge stocks). In our agent-based model, firms are located in a metric knowledge space. The interaction rules incorporate an exploration phase and a knowledge transfer phase, during which firms search for a new partner and then evaluate whether they can establish an alliance to exchange their knowledge stocks. The model parameters determining the overall system properties are the rate at which alliances form and dissolve and the agents' interaction radius. Next, we define a novel indicator of performance, based on the distance traveled by the firms in the knowledge space. Remarkably, we find that - depending on the alliance formation rate and the interaction radius - firms tend to cluster around one or more attractors in the knowledge space, whose position is an emergent property of the system. And, more importantly, we find that there exists an inverted U-shaped dependence of the network performance on both model parameters.

Abstract

Through the analysis of collective upvotes and downvotes in multiple social media, we discover the bimodal regime of collective evaluations. When online content surpasses the local social context by reaching a threshold of collective attention, negativity grows faster with positivity, which serves as a trace of the burst of a filter bubble. To attain a global audience, we show that emotions expressed in online content has a significant effect and also play a key role in creating polarized opinions.

Remarks

Accepted as a poster.

Abstract

Urban structures encompass settlements, characterized by the spatial distribution of built-up areas, and also transportation structures, to connect these built-up areas. These two structures are very different in their origin and function, fulfilling complementary needs: (1) to access space and (2) to occupy space. Their evolution cannot be understood by looking at the dynamics of urban aggregations and transportation systems separately. Instead, existing built-up areas feed back on the further development of transportation structures, and the availability of the latter feeds back on the future growth of urban aggregations. To model this co-evolution, we propose an agent-based approach that builds on existing agent-based models for the evolution of trail systems and urban settlements. The key element in these separate approaches is a generalized communication of agents by means of an adaptive landscape. This landscape is only generated by the agents, but once it exists, it feeds back on their further actions. The emerging trail system or urban aggregation results as a self-organized structure from these collective interactions. In our co-evolutionary approach, we couple these two separate models by means of meta-agents that represent humans with their different demands for housing and mobility. We characterize our approach as a statistical ensemble approach, which allows to capture the potential of urban evolution in a bottom-up manner, but can be validated against empirical observations.

Abstract

We study cascades on a two-layer multiplex network, with asymmetric feedback that depends on the coupling strength between the layers. Based on an analytical branching process approximation, we calculate the systemic risk measured by the final fraction of failed nodes on a reference layer. The results are compared with the case of a single layer network that is an aggregated representation of the two layers. We find that systemic risk in the two-layer network is smaller than in the aggregated one only if the coupling strength between the two layers is small. Above a critical coupling strength, systemic risk is increased because of the mutual amplification of cascades in the two layers. We even observe sharp phase transitions in the cascade size that are less pronounced on the aggregated layer. Our insights can be applied to a scenario where firms decide whether they want to split their business into a less risky core business and a more risky subsidiary business. In most cases, this may lead to a drastic increase of systemic risk, which is underestimated in an aggregated approach.

Abstract

The QWERTY effect postulates that the keyboard layout influences word meanings by linking positivity to the use of the right hand and negativity to the use of the left hand. For example, previous research has established that words with more right hand letters are rated more positively than words with more left hand letters by human subjects in small scale experiments. In this paper, we perform large scale investigations of the QWERTY effect on the web. Using data from eleven web platforms related to products, movies, books, and videos, we conduct observational tests whether a hand-meaning relationship can be found in text interpretations by web users. Furthermore, we investigate whether writing text on the web exhibits the QWERTY effect as well, by analyzing the relationship between the text of online reviews and their star ratings in four additional datasets. Overall, we find robust evidence for the QWERTY effect both at the point of text interpretation (decoding) and at the point of text creation (encoding). We also find under which conditions the effect might not hold. Our findings have implications for any algorithmic method aiming to evaluate the meaning of words on the web, including for example semantic or sentiment analysis, and show the existence of "dactilar onomatopoeias" that shape the dynamics of word-meaning associations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to reveal the extent to which the QWERTY effect exists in large scale human-computer interaction on the web.

Abstract

Recent research on temporal networks has highlighted the limitations of a static network perspective for our understanding of complex systems with dynamic topologies. In particular, recent works have shown that i) the specific order in which links occur in real-world temporal networks affects causality structures and thus the evolution of dynamical processes, and ii) higher-order aggregate representations of temporal networks can be used to analytically study the effect of these order correlations on dynamical processes. In this article we analyze the effect of order correlations on path-based centrality measures in real-world temporal networks. Analyzing temporal equivalents of betweenness, closeness and reach centrality in six empirical temporal networks, we first show that an analysis of the commonly used static, time-aggregated representation can give misleading results about the actual importance of nodes. We further study higher-order time-aggregated networks, a recently proposed generalization of the commonly applied static, time-aggregated representation of temporal networks. Here, we particularly define path-based centrality measures based on second-order aggregate networks, empirically validating that node centralities calculated in this way better capture the true temporal centralities of nodes than node centralities calculated based on the commonly used static (first-order) representation. Apart from providing a simple and practical method for the approximation of path-based centralities in temporal networks, our results highlight interesting perspectives for the use of higher-order aggregate networks in the analysis of time-stamped network data.

Abstract

We analyze the controllability of a two-layer network, where driver nodes can be chosen randomly only from one layer. Each layer contains a scale-free network with directed links and the node dynamics depends on the incoming links from other nodes. We combine the in-degree and out-degree values to assign an importance value w to each node, and distinguish between peripheral nodes with low w and central nodes with high w. Based on numerical simulations, we find that the controllable part of the network is larger when choosing low w nodes to connect the two layers. The control is as efficient when peripheral nodes are driver nodes as it is for the case of more central nodes. However, if we assume a cost to utilize nodes that is proportional to their overall degree, utilizing peripheral nodes to connect the two layers or to act as driver nodes is not only the most cost-efficient solution, it is also the one that performs best in controlling the two-layer network among the different interconnecting strategies we have tested.

Abstract

The social connections, or ties, individuals create affect their life outcomes, for example, by providing novel information that leads to new jobs or career opportunities. A host of socioeconomic and cognitive factors are believed to affect social interactions, but few of these factors have been empirically validated. In this research work, we extracted a large corpus of data from a popular social media platform that consists of geo-referenced messages, or tweets, posted from a major US metropolitan area. We linked these tweets to US Census data through their locations. This allowed us to measure emotions expressed in tweets posted from a specific area, and also use that area's socioeconomic and demographic characteristics in the analysis. We extracted the structure of social interactions from the people mentioned in tweets from that area. We find that at an aggregate level, areas where social media users engage in stronger, less diverse online social interactions are those where they express more negative emotions, like sadness and anger. With respect to demographics, these areas have larger numbers of Hispanic residents, lower mean household income, and lower education levels. Conversely, areas with weaker, more diverse online interactions are associated with happier, more positive feelings and also have better educated, younger and higher-earning residents. Our work highlights the value of linking social media data to traditional data sources, such as US Census, to drive novel analysis of online behavior.

Abstract

Complex software development projects rely on the contribution of teams of developers, who are required to collaborate and coordinate their efforts. The productivity of such development teams, i.e., how their size is related to the produced output, is an important consideration for project and schedule management as well as for cost estimation. The majority of studies in empirical software engineering suggest that - due to coordination overhead - teams of collaborating developers become less productive as they grow in size. This phenomenon is commonly paraphrased as Brooks’ law of software project management, which states that “adding manpower to a software project makes it later”. Outside software engineering, the non-additive scaling of productivity in teams is often referred to as the Ringelmann effect, which is studied extensively in social psychology and organizational theory. Conversely, a recent study suggested that in Open Source Software (OSS) projects, the productivity of developers increases as the team grows in size. Attributing it to collective synergetic effects, this surprising finding was linked to the Aristotelian quote that “the whole is more than the sum of its parts”. Using a data set of 58 OSS projects with more than 580,000 commits contributed by more than 30,000 developers, in this article we provide a large-scale analysis of the relation between size and productivity of software development teams. Our findings confirm the negative relation between team size and productivity previously suggested by empirical software engineering research, thus providing quantitative evidence for the presence of a strong Ringelmann effect. Using fine-grained data on the association between developers and source code files, we investigate possible explanations for the observed relations between team size and productivity. In particular, we take a network perspective on developer-code associations in software development teams and show that the magnitude of the decrease in productivity is likely to be related to the growth dynamics of co-editing networks which can be interpreted as a first-order approximation of coordination requirements.

Abstract

We study properties of multi-layered, interconnected networks from an ensemble perspective, i.e. we analyze ensembles of multi-layer networks that share similar aggregate characteristics. Using a diffusive process that evolves on a multi-layer network, we analyze how the speed of diffusion depends on the aggregate characteristics of both intra- and inter-layer connectivity. Through a block-matrix model representing the distinct layers, we construct transition matrices of random walkers on multi-layer networks, and estimate expected properties of multi-layer networks using a mean-field approach. In addition, we quantify and explore conditions on the link topology that allow to estimate the ensemble average by only considering aggregate statistics of the layers. Our approach can be used when only partial information is available, like it is usually the case for real-world multi-layer complex systems.

Abstract

Location-sharing services were built upon people's desire to share their activities and locations with others. By "checking-in" to a place, such as a restaurant, a park, gym, or train station, people disclose where they are, thereby providing valuable information about land use and utilization of services in urban areas. This information may, in turn, be used to design smarter, happier, more equitable cities. We use data from Foursquare location-sharing service to identify areas within a major US metropolitan area with many check-ins, i.e., areas that people like to use. We then use data from the Twitter microblogging platform to analyze the properties of these areas. Specifically, we have extracted a large corpus of geo-tagged messages, called tweets, from a major metropolitan area and linked them US Census data through their locations. This allows us to measure the sentiment expressed in tweets that are posted from a specific area, and also use that area's demographic properties in analysis. Our results reveal that areas with many check-ins are different from other areas within the metropolitan region. In particular, these areas have happier tweets, which also encourage people from other areas to commute longer distances to these places. These findings shed light on human mobility patterns, as well as how physical environment influences human emotions.

Abstract

Wikipedia is a community-created encyclopedia that contains information about notable people from different countries, epochs and disciplines and aims to document the world’s knowledge from a neutral point of view. However, the narrow diversity of the Wikipedia editor community has the potential to introduce systemic biases such as gender biases into the content of Wikipedia. In this paper we aim to tackle a sub problem of this larger challenge by presenting and applying a computational method for assessing gender bias on Wikipedia along multiple dimensions. We find that while women on Wikipedia are covered and featured well in many Wikipedia language editions, the way women are portrayed starkly differs from the way men are portrayed. We hope our work contributes to increasing awareness about gender biases online, and in particular to raising attention to the different levels in which gender biases can manifest themselves on the web.

Abstract

We develop an agent-based model to reproduce the processes of link formation and knowledge exchange in a Research and Development (R&D) inter-organizational network. In our model, agents form links based on their network features, i.e. their belonging to one of the network's circles of influence and their previous alliance history, and then exchange knowledge with their partners, thus modifying their positions in a metric knowledge space. Furthermore, we validate the model against real data using a two-step approach. Through the Thomson Reuters SDC alliance dataset, we estimate the model parameters related to the link formation, thus reproducing the topology of the resulting R&D network. Subsequently, using the NBER data on firm patents, we estimate the parameters related to the knowledge exchange process, thus evaluating the rate at which firms exchange knowledge and the duration of the R&D alliances themselves. The underlying knowledge space that we consider in our real example is defined by IPC patent classes, allowing for a precise quantification of every firm's knowledge position. Our novel data-driven approach allows us to unveil the complex interdependencies between the firms' network embeddedness and their technological positions. Through the validation of our model, we find that real R&D alliances have a duration of around two years, and that the subsequent knowledge exchange occurs at a very low rate. Most of the alliances, indeed, have no consequence on the partners' knowledge positions: this suggests that a firm's position - evaluated through its patents - is rather a determinant than a consequence of its R&D alliances. Finally, we propose an indicator of collaboration performance for the whole network. We find that the real R&D network does not maximize such an indicator. Our study shows that there exist configurations that can be both realistic and optimized with respect to the collaboration performance. Effective policies to obtain an optimized collaboration network - as suggested by our model - would incentivize shorter R&D alliances and higher knowledge exchange rates, for instance including rewards for quick co-patenting by allied firms.

Abstract

Metastasizing tumor cells migrate through the surrounding tissue and extracellular matrix toward the blood vessels, in order to colonize distant organs. They typically move in a dense environment, filled with other cells. In this work we study cooperative effects between neighboring cells of different types, migrating in a maze-like environment with directional cue. Using a computerized model, we measure the percentage of cells that arrive to the defined target, for different mesenchymal/amoeboid ratios. Wall degradation of mesenchymal cells, as well as motility of both types of cells, are coupled to metabolic energy-like resource level. We find that indirect cooperation emerges in mid-level energy, as mesenchymal cells create paths that are used by amoeboids. Therefore, we expect to see a small population of mesenchymals kept in a mostly-amoeboid population. We also study different forms of direct interaction between the cells, and show that energy-dependent interaction strength is optimal for the migration of both mesenchymals and amoeboids. The obtained characteristics of cellular cluster size are in agreement with experimental results. We therefore predict that hybrid states, e.g. epithelial-mesenchymal, should be utilized as a stress-response mechanism.

Abstract

Building relationships is crucial for satisfaction and success, especially when entering new social contexts. In the present paper, we investigate whether attempting to improve others’ feelings helps people to make connections in new networks. In Study 1, a social network study following new networks of people for a twelve-week period indicated that use of interpersonal emotion regulation (IER) strategies predicted growth in popularity, as indicated by other network members’ reports of spending time with the person, in work and non-work interactions. In Study 2, linguistic analysis of the tweets from over 8000 Twitter users from formation of their accounts revealed that use of IER predicted greater popularity in terms of the number of followers gained. However, not all types of IER had positive effects. Behavioral IER strategies (which use behavior to reassure or comfort in order to regulate affect) were associated with greater popularity, while cognitive strategies (which change a person’s thoughts about his or her situation or feelings in order to regulate affect) were negatively associated with popularity. Our findings have implications for our understanding of how new relationships are formed, highlighting the important the role played by intentional emotion regulatory processes.

Abstract

We study the two-particle annihilation reaction A+B→∅ on interconnected scale-free networks, using different interconnecting strategies. We explore how the mixing of particles and the process evolution are influenced by the number of interconnecting links, by their functional properties, and by the interconnectivity strategies in use. We show that the reaction rates on this system are faster than what was observed in other topologies, due to the better particle mixing that suppresses the segregation effect, in line with previous studies performed on single scale-free networks.

Abstract

Large collaborative software engineering projects are interesting examples for evolving complex systems. The complexity of these systems unfolds both in evolving software structures, as well as in the social dynamics and organization of development teams. Due to the adoption of Open Source practices and the increasing use of online support infrastructures, large-scale data sets covering both the social and technical dimension of collaborative software engineering processes are increasingly becoming available. In the analysis of these data, a growing number of studies employ a network perspective, using methods and abstractions from network science to generate insights about software engineering processes. Featuring a collection of inspiring works in this area, with this topical issue, we intend to give an overview of state-of-the-art research. We hope that this collection of articles will stimulate downstream applications of network-based data mining techniques in empirical software engineering.

Abstract

Online social media has recently irrupted as the last major venue for the propagation of news and cultural content, competing with traditional mass media and allowing citizens to access new sources of information. In this paper, we study collectively filtered news and popular content in Twitter, known as Trending Topics (TTs), to quantify the extent to which they show similar biases known for mass media. We use two datasets collected in 2013 and 2014, including more than 300.000 TTs from 62 countries. The existing patterns of leader-follower relationships among countries reveal systemic biases known for mass media: Countries concentrate their attention to small groups of other countries, generating a pattern of centralization in which TTs follow the gradient of wealth across countries. At the same time, we find subjective biases within language communities linked to the cultural similarity of countries, in which countries with closer cultures and shared languages tend to follow each other’s TTs. Moreover, using a novel methodology based on the Google News service, we study the influence of mass media in TTs for four countries. We find that roughly half of the TTs in Twitter overlap with news reported by mass media, and that the rest of TTs are more likely to spread internationally within Twitter. Our results confirm that online social media have the power to independently spread content beyond mass media, but at the same time social media content follows economic incentives and is subject to cultural factors and language barriers.

Abstract

Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market, institutions only report their aggregated quarterly risk exposure, but no details about their counterparties. Hence, little is known about the diversification of counterparty risk. In this paper, we reconstruct the weighted and time-dependent network of counterparty risk in the OTC derivatives market of the United States between 1998 and 2012. To proxy unknown bilateral exposures, we first study the co-occurrence patterns of institutions based on their quarterly activity and ranking in the official report. The network obtained this way is further analysed by a weighted k-core decomposition, to reveal a core-periphery structure. This allows us to compare the activity-based ranking with a topology-based ranking, to identify the most important institutions and their mutual dependencies. We also analyse correlations in these activities, to show strong similarities in the behavior of the core institutions. Our analysis clearly demonstrates the clustering of counterparty risk in a small set of about a dozen US banks. This not only increases the default risk of the central institutions, but also the default risk of peripheral institutions which have contracts with the central ones. Hence, all institutions indirectly have to bear (part of) the counterparty risk of all others, which needs to be better reflected in the price of OTC derivatives.

Remarks

Find the Supporting Information at DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0136638.s001

Abstract

Dodds et al. (1) present a universal positivity bias—in 10 human languages—that they claim is independent of word frequency. This result contradicts previous findings (2, 3) in which a relationship between word happiness and frequency is reported for a variety of languages and large-scale datasets. To better understand this contradiction, we reanalyze the labMT (language assessment by Mechanical Turk) data produced in Dodds et al. (1) against a larger reference lexicon (3). Our reanalysis shows that the data used in Dodds et al. (1) does not support their claims.

Abstract

Viral marketing seeks to maximize the spread of a campaign through an online social network, often targeting influential nodes with high centrality. In this article, we analyze behavioral aspects of influential users in trust-based product reviews communities, quantifying emotional expression, helpfulness, and user activity level. We focus on two independent product review communities, Dooyoo and Epinions, in which users can write product reviews and define trust links to filter product recommendations. Following the patterns of social contagion processes, we measure user social influence by means of the k-shell decomposition of trust networks. For each of these users, we apply sentiment analysis to extract their extent of positive, negative, and neutral emotional expression. In addition, we quantify the level of feedback they received in their reviews, the length of their contributions, and their level of activity over their lifetime in the community. We find that users of both communities exhibit a large heterogeneity of social influence, and that helpfulness votes and age are significantly better predictors of the influence of an individual than sentiment. The most active of the analyzed communities shows a particular structure, in which the inner core of users is qualitatively different from its periphery in terms of a stronger positive and negative emotional expression. These results suggest that both objective and subjective aspects of reviews are relevant to the communication of subjective experience.

Abstract

Background: Pro-anorexia communities exist online and encourage harmful weight loss and weight control practices, often through emotional content that enforces social ties within these communities. User-generated responses to videos that directly oppose pro-anorexia communities have not yet been researched in depth. Objective: The aim was to study emotional reactions to pro-anorexia and anti-pro-anorexia online content on YouTube using sentiment analysis. Methods: Using the 50 most popular YouTube pro-anorexia and anti-pro-anorexia user channels as a starting point, we gathered data on users, their videos, and their commentators. A total of 395 anorexia videos and 12,161 comments were analyzed using positive and negative sentiments and ratings submitted by the viewers of the videos. The emotional information was automatically extracted with an automatic sentiment detection tool whose reliability was tested with human coders. Ordinary least squares regression models were used to estimate the strength of sentiments. The models controlled for the number of video views and comments, number of months the video had been on YouTube, duration of the video, uploader’s activity as a video commentator, and uploader’s physical location by country. Results: The 395 videos had more than 6 million views and comments by almost 8000 users. Anti-pro-anorexia video comments expressed more positive sentiments on a scale of 1 to 5 (adjusted prediction [AP] 2.15, 95% CI 2.11-2.19) than did those of pro-anorexia videos (AP 2.02, 95% CI 1.98-2.06). Anti-pro-anorexia videos also received more likes (AP 181.02, 95% CI 155.19-206.85) than pro-anorexia videos (AP 31.22, 95% CI 31.22-37.81). Negative sentiments and video dislikes were equally distributed in responses to both pro-anorexia and anti-pro-anorexia videos. Conclusions: Despite pro-anorexia content being widespread on YouTube, videos promoting help for anorexia and opposing the pro-anorexia community were more popular, gaining more positive feedback and comments than pro-anorexia videos. Thus, the anti-pro-anorexia content provided a user-generated counterforce against pro-anorexia content on YouTube. Professionals working with young people should be aware of the social media dynamics and versatility of user-generated eating disorder content online.

Abstract

Non-linear voter models assume that the opinion of an agent depends on the opinions of its neighbors in a non-linear manner. This allows for voting rules different from majority voting. While the linear voter model is known to reach consensus, non-linear voter models can result in the coexistence of opposite opinions. Our aim is to derive approximations to correctly predict the time dependent dynamics, or at least the asymptotic outcome, of such local interactions. Emphasis is on a probabilistic approach to decompose the opinion distribution in a second-order neighborhood into lower-order probability distributions. This is compared with an analytic pair approximation for the expected value of the global fraction of opinions and a mean-field approximation. Our reference case is averaged stochastic simulations of a one-dimensional cellular automaton. We find that the probabilistic second-order approach captures the dynamics of the reference case very well for different non-linearities, i.e., for both majority and minority voting rules, which only partly holds for the first-order pair approximation and not at all for the mean-field approximation. We further discuss the interesting phenomenon of a correlated coexistence, characterized by the formation of large domains of opinions that dominate for some time, but slowly change.

Abstract

The availability of data on digital traces is growing to unprecedented sizes, but inferring actionable knowledge from large-scale data is far from being trivial. This is especially important for computational finance, where digital traces of human behaviour offer a great potential to drive trading strategies. We contribute to this by providing a consistent approach that integrates various datasources in the design of algorithmic traders. This allows us to derive insights into the principles behind the profitability of our trading strategies. We illustrate our approach through the analysis of Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency known for its large price fluctuations. In our analysis, we include economic signals of volume and price of exchange for USD, adoption of the Bitcoin technology and transaction volume of Bitcoin. We add social signals related to information search, word of mouth volume, emotional valence and opinion polarization as expressed in tweets related to Bitcoin for more than 3 years. Our analysis reveals that increases in opinion polarization and exchange volume precede rising Bitcoin prices, and that emotional valence precedes opinion polarization and rising exchange volumes. We apply these insights to design algorithmic trading strategies for Bitcoin, reaching very high profits in less than a year. We verify this high profitability with robust statistical methods that take into account risk and trading costs, confirming the long-standing hypothesis that trading-based social media sentiment has the potential to yield positive returns on investment.

Remarks

Online visualization at www.sg.ethz.ch/btc

Abstract

Better understanding and controlling complex systems has become a grand challenge not only for computer science, but also for the natural and social sciences. Many of these systems have in common that they can be studied from a network perspective. Consequently methods from network science have proven instrumental in their analysis. In this article, I introduce the macroscopic perspective that is at the heart of network science. Summarizing my recent research activities, I discuss how a combination of this perspective with Big Data methods can improve our understanding of complex systems.

Abstract

Political polarization is traditionally analyzed through the ideological stances of groups and parties, but it also has a behavioral component that manifests in the interactions between individuals. We present an empirical analysis of the digital traces of politicians in politnetz.ch, a Swiss online platform focused on political activity, in which politicians interact by creating support links, comments, and likes. We analyze network polarization as the level of intra-party cohesion with respect to inter-party connectivity, finding that supports show a very strongly polarized structure with respect to party alignment. The analysis of this multiplex network shows that each layer of interaction contains relevant information, where comment groups follow topics related to Swiss politics. Our analysis reveals that polarization in the layer of likes evolves in time, increasing close to the federal elections of 2011. Furthermore, we analyze the internal social network of each party through metrics related to hierarchical structures, information efficiency, and social resilience. Our results suggest that the online social structure of a party is related to its ideology, and reveal that the degree of connectivity across two parties increases when they are close in the ideological space of a multi-party system.

Abstract

Recent grassroots movements have suggested that online social networks might play a key role in their organization, as adherents have a fast, many-to-many, communication channel to help coordinate their mobilization. The structure and dynamics of the networks constructed from the digital traces of protesters have been analyzed to some extent recently. However, less effort has been devoted to the analysis of the semantic content of messages exchanged during the protest. Using the data obtained from a microblogging service during the brewing and active phases of the 15M movement in Spain, we perform the first large scale test of theories on collective emotions and social interaction in collective actions. Our findings show that activity and information cascades in the movement are larger in the presence of negative collective emotions and when users express themselves in terms related to social content. At the level of individual participants, our results show that their social integration in the movement, as measured through social network metrics, increases with their level of engagement and of expression of negativity. Our findings show that non-rational factors play a role in the formation and activity of social movements through online media, having important consequences for viral spreading.

Abstract

We develop a model of innovation communities which allows us to address in a systematic way the influence of users and developers as well as communication between and within these groups. Based on this model, we derive a formal approach to quantify communication flows, community activity and community turnover. These measures are calculated using the data of 100 open source software projects. Our empirical analysis shows that: (i) Users play indeed a predominant role in communication, which points towards the vivid role of an active user community; (ii) communication is highly concentrated, which points towards the importance of active individuals and (iii) community turnover exhibits only little correlation with community segregation, which may allow to benefit from high turnover rates while keeping negative effects small. We argue that insight from this extensive analysis not only complements existing case studies, it also provides a reference frame to put these singular results into perspective when aiming at generalizations.

Abstract

The measurement of information flows within moving animal groups has recently been a topic of considerable interest, and it has become clear that the individual(s) that drive collective movement may change over time, and that such individuals may not necessarily always lead from the front. However, methods to quantify the influence of specific individuals on the behaviour of other group members and the direction of information flow in moving group, are lacking on the level of empirical studies and theoretical models. Using high spatio-temporal resolution GPS trajectories of foraging meerkats, Suricata suricatta, we provide an information-theoretic framework to identify dynamical coupling between animals independent of their relative spatial positions. Based on this identification, we then compare designations of individuals as either drivers or responders against designations provided by the relative spatial position. We find that not only does coupling occur both from the frontal to the trailing individuals and vice versa, but also that the coupling direction is a non-linear function of the relative position. This provides evidence for (i) intermittent fluctuation of the coupling strength and (ii) alternation in the coupling direction within foraging meerkat pairs. The framework we introduce allows for a detailed description of the dynamical patterns of mutual influence between all pairs of individuals within moving animal groups. We argue that applying an information-theoretic perspective to the study of coordinated phenomena in animal groups will eventually help to understand cause and effect in collective behaviour.

Abstract

Networked systems are becoming increasingly complex in development and operation. Due to this complexity, it is mostly impossible to follow a simple sequential design-deploy-use cycle. Instead, development and operation will become more evolutionary in nature. Additionally, one can observe that individual complex systems are coupled with each other, even though this has never been intended in the early development of these systems. As a result, we are facing interwoven systems – multiple open time-variant systems are coupled and interact having, e.g., different goals and objectives as well as changing system and communication structure. Based on and extending the idea of composing Systems of Systems, this article identifies challenges that are becoming increasingly apparent as the inevitable integration of systems progresses.

Abstract

The excessive increase of leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions since it amplifies potential investment losses. On the other side, portfolio diversification acts to mitigate these losses. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be considered independent. Based on the structural framework by Merton (1974), we propose a model in which these correlations arise from overlaps in banks’ portfolios. Our main result is the finding of a critical level of diversification that separates two regimes: (i) a safe regime in which a properly chosen diversification strategy offsets the higher systemic risk engendered by increased leverage and (ii) a risky regime in which an inadequate diversification strategy and/or adverse market conditions, such as market size, market volatility and time horizon, cannot compensate the same increase in leverage. Our results are of relevance for financial regulators especially because the critical level of diversification may not coincide with the one that is individually optimal.

Abstract

The extraction of relevant knowledge from the increasingly large amount of information available in information repositories is one of the big challenges of our time. Although it is clear that the social and the information layer of collaborative knowledge spaces like the World Wide Web (WWW), scholarly publication databases or Online Social Networks (OSNs) are inherently coupled and thus inseparable, the question how the ranking and retrieval of information is influenced by the structure and dynamics of the social systems that create it has been addressed at most partially. In this talk, we will highlight associated research questions and challenges from an ethical, social and computer science perspective and introduce a multiplex network perspective that integrates both the social and the semantic layer of social information systems.

Abstract

We address the question to what extent the success of scientific articles is due to social influence. Analyzing a data set of over 100000 publications from the field of Computer Science, we study how centrality in the coauthorship network differs between authors who have highly cited papers and those who do not. We further show that a machine learning classifier, based only on coauthorship network centrality measures at time of publication, is able to predict with high precision whether an article will be highly cited five years after publication. By this we provide quantitative insight into the social dimension of scientific publishing - challenging the perception of citations as an objective, socially unbiased measure of scientific success.

Abstract

The problem of online privacy is often reduced to individual decisions to hide or reveal personal information in online social networks (OSNs). However, with the increasing use of OSNs, it becomes more important to understand the role of the social network in disclosing personal information that a user has not revealed voluntarily: How much of our private information do our friends disclose about us, and how much of our privacy is lost simply because of online social interaction? Without strong technical effort, an OSN may be able to exploit the assortativity of human private features, this way constructing shadow profiles with information that users chose not to share. Furthermore, because many users share their phone and email contact lists, this allows an OSN to create full shadow profiles for people who do not even have an account for this OSN. We empirically test the feasibility of constructing shadow profiles of sexual orientation for users and non-users, using data from more than 3 Million accounts of a single OSN. We quantify a lower bound for the predictive power derived from the social network of a user, to demonstrate how the predictability of sexual orientation increases with the size of this network and the tendency to share personal information. This allows us to define a privacy leak factor that links individual privacy loss with the decision of other individuals to disclose information. Our statistical analysis reveals that some individuals are at a higher risk of privacy loss, as prediction accuracy increases for users with a larger and more homogeneous first-and second-order neighborhood of their social network. While we do not provide evidence that shadow profiles exist at all, our results show that disclosing of private information is not restricted to an individual choice, but becomes a collective decision that has implications for policy and privacy regulation.

Abstract

The subjective nature of gender inequality motivates the analysis and comparison of data from real and fictional human interaction. We present a computational extension of the Bechdel test: A popular tool to assess if a movie contains a male gender bias, by looking for two female characters who discuss about something besides a man. We provide the tools to quantify Bechdel scores for both genders, and we measure them in movie scripts and large datasets of dialogues between users of MySpace and Twitter. Comparing movies and users of social media, we find that movies and Twitter conversations have a consistent male bias, which does not appear when analyzing MySpace. Furthermore, the narrative of Twitter is closer to the movies that do not pass the Bechdel test than to those that pass it. We link the properties of movies and the users that share trailers of those movies. Our analysis reveals some particularities of movies that pass the Bechdel test: Their trailers are less popular, female users are more likely to share them than male users, and users that share them tend to interact less with male users. Based on our datasets, we define gender independence measurements to analyze the gender biases of a society, as manifested through digital traces of online behavior. Using the profile information of Twitter users, we find larger gender independence for urban users in comparison to rural ones. Additionally, the asymmetry between genders is larger for parents and lower for students. Gender asymmetry varies across US states, increasing with higher average income and latitude. This points to the relation between gender inequality and social, economical, and cultural factors of a society, and how gender roles exist in both fictional narratives and public online dialogues.

Abstract

Every day, millions of Internet users leave online traces that are publicly accessible. Data about forum comments, video downloads, or product reviews provide a valuable insight into human online behavior. The retrieval of datasets of unprecedented size may eventu- ally also allow testing of hypotheses or validation of theories that have been developed in the social sciences, for example, about preferences, social influence (Lorenz, 2009; Onnela & Reed-Tsochas, 2010), trust, and cooperation (Walter, Battiston, Yildirim, & Schweitzer, 2011). This recent scientific development has led to the emerging field of computational social science (Lazer et al., 2009) which combines methods and tools from different tech- nical and social disciplines. Also, psychology can benefit from this development by get- ting access to data without designing expensive experimental setups of limited size. For example, the analysis of Twitter messages allows studying the influence of the circadian cycles on human mood (Golder & Macy, 2011), and sentiment analysis of large-scale datasets reveals patterns of emotional expression predicted by earlier theories (Garcia, Garas, & Schweitzer, 2012).

Abstract

We develop a dynamic network formation model that can explain the observed nestedness in real-world networks. Links are formed on the basis of agents’ centrality and have an exponentially distributed life time. We use stochastic stability to identify the networks to which the network formation process converges and find that they are nested split graphs. We completely determine the topological properties of the stochastically stable networks and show that they match features exhibited by real-world networks. Using four different network datasets, we empirically test our model and show that it fits well the observed networks.

Abstract

Established open source software (OSS) projects can grow in size if new developers join, but also the number of OSS projects can grow if developers choose to found new projects. We discuss to what extent an established model for firm growth can be applied to the dynamics of OSS projects. Our analysis is based on a large-scale data set from SourceForge (SF) consisting of monthly data for 10 years, for up to 360,000 OSS projects and up to 340,000 developers. Over this time period, we find an exponential growth both in the number of projects and developers, with a remarkable increase of single-developer projects after 2009. We analyze the monthly entry and exit rates for both projects and developers, the growth rate of established projects and the monthly project size distribution. To derive a prediction for the latter, we use modeling assumptions of how newly entering developers choose to either found a new project or to join existing ones. Our model applies only to collaborative projects that are deemed to grow in size by attracting new developers. We verify, by a thorough statistical analysis, that the Yule–Simon distribution is a valid candidate for the size distribution of collaborative projects except for certain time periods where the modeling assumptions no longer hold. We detect and empirically test the reason for this limitation, i.e., the fact that an increasing number of established developers found additional new projects after 2009.

Abstract

We combine user-centric Twitter data with video-centric YouTube data to analyze who watches and shares what on YouTube. Combination of two data sets, with 87k Twitter users, 5.6mln YouTube videos and 15mln video sharing events, allows rich analysis going beyond what could be obtained with either of the two data sets individually. For Twitter, we generate user features relating to activity, interests and demographics. For YouTube, we obtain video features for topic, popularity and polarization. These two feature sets are combined through sharing events for YouTube URLs on Twitter. This combination is done both in a user-, a video-and a sharing-event-centric manner. For the user-centric analysis, we show how Twitter user features correlate both with YouTube features and with sharing-related features. As two examples, we show urban users are quicker to share than rural users and for some notions of "influence" influential users on Twitter share videos with a higher number of views. For the video-centric analysis, we find a superlinear relation between initial Twitter shares and the final amounts of views, showing the correlated behavior of Twitter. On user impact, we find the total amount of followers of users that shared the video in the first week does not affect its final popularity. However, aggregated user retweet rates serve as a better predictor for YouTube video popularity. For the sharing-centric analysis, we reveal existence of correlated behavior concerning the time between video creation and sharing within certain timescales, showing the time onset for a coherent response, and the time limit after which collective responses are extremely unlikely. We show that response times depend on video category, revealing that Twitter sharing of a video is highly dependent on its content. To the best of our knowledge this is the first large-scale study combining YouTube and Twitter data.

Abstract

Modular design is a desirable characteristic of complex software systems that can significantly improve their comprehensibility, maintainability and thus quality. While many software systems are initially created in a modular way, over time modularity typically degrades as components are reused outside the context where they were created. In this paper, we propose an automated strategy to remodularize software based on move refactoring, i.e. moving classes between packages without changing any other aspect of the source code. Taking a complex systems perspective, our approach is based on complex networks theory applied to the dynamics of software modular structures and its relation to an n-state spin model known as the Potts Model. In our approach, nodes are probabilistically moved between modules with a probability that nonlinearly depends on the number and module membership of their adjacent neighbors. The latter are defined by the underlying network of software dependencies. To validate our method, we apply it to a dataset of 39 Java open source projects in order to optimize their modularity. Comparing the source code generated by the developers with the optimized code resulting from our approach, we find that modularity (i.e. quantified in terms of a standard measure from the study of complex networks) improves on average by 166+-77 percent. In order to facilitate the application of our method in practical studies, we provide a freely available Eclipse plug-in.

Abstract

Models of opinion formation are used to investigate many collective phenomena. While social influence often constitutes a basic mechanism, its implementation differs between the models. In this paper, we provide a general framework of social influence inspired by the social psychological concept of cognitive dissonance.We only premise that individuals strive to minimize dissonance resulting from different opinions compared to neighbor individuals in a given social network. Within a game theoretic context, we show that our concept of dissonance reduction exhibits the basic properties of a coordination process. We further show that different models of opinion formation can be represented as best response dynamics within our general framework. Thus, we offer a unifying perspective on heterogeneous models and link them to rational choice theory.

Abstract

Enterprise social software tools are increasingly being used to support the communication and collaboration between employees, as well as to facilitate the collaborative organisation of information and knowledge within companies. Not only do these tools help to develop and maintain an efficient social organisation, they also produce massive amounts of fine-grained data on collaborations, communication and other forms of social relationships within an enterprise. In this chapter, we argue that the availability of these data provides unique opportunities to monitor and analyse social structures and their impact on the success and performance of individuals, teams, communities and organisations. We further review methods from the planning, design and optimisation of telecommunication networks and discuss challenges arising when wanting to apply them to optimise the structure of enterprise social networks.

Abstract

We develop an agent-based model of strategic link formation in Research and Development (R&D) networks. Empirical evidence has shown that the growth of these networks is driven by mechanisms which are both endogenous to the system (that is, depending on existing alliances patterns) and exogenous (that is, driven by an exploratory search for newcomer firms). Extant research to date has not investigated both mechanisms simultaneously in a comparative manner. To overcome this limitation, we develop a general modeling framework to shed light on the relative importance of these two mechanisms. We test our model against a comprehensive dataset, listing cross-country and cross-sectoral R&D alliances from 1984 to 2009. Our results show that by fitting only three macroscopic properties of the network topology, this framework is able to reproduce a number of micro-level measures, including the distributions of degree, local clustering, path length and component size, and the emergence of network clusters. Furthermore, by estimating the link probabilities towards newcomers and established firms from the data, we find that endogenous mechanisms are predominant over the exogenous ones in the network formation, thus quantifying the importance of existing structures in selecting partner firms.

Abstract

Recent research has highlighted limitations of studying complex systems with time-varying topologies from the perspective of static, time-aggregated networks. Non-Markovian characteristics resulting from the ordering of interactions in temporal networks were identified as one important mechanism that alters causality and affects dynamical processes. So far, an analytical explanation for this phenomenon and for the significant variations observed across different systems is missing. Here we introduce a methodology that allows to analytically predict causality-driven changes of diffusion speed in non-Markovian temporal networks. Validating our predictions in six data sets we show that compared with the time-aggregated network, non-Markovian characteristics can lead to both a slow-down or speed-up of diffusion, which can even outweigh the decelerating effect of community structures in the static topology. Thus, non-Markovian properties of temporal networks constitute an important additional dimension of complexity in time-varying complex systems.

Abstract

What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique possibility to measure socio-economic signals from such digital traces. Here, we focus on Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has experienced periods of rapid increase in exchange rates (price) followed by sharp decline; we hypothesize that these fluctuations are largely driven by the interplay between different social phenomena. We thus quantify four socio-economic signals about Bitcoin from large datasets: price on online exchanges, volume of word-of-mouth communication in online social media, volume of information search and user base growth. By using vector autoregression, we identify two positive feedback loops that lead to price bubbles in the absence of exogenous stimuli: one driven by word of mouth, and the other by new Bitcoin adopters. We also observe that spikes in information search, presumably linked to external events, precede drastic price declines. Understanding the interplay between the socio-economic signals we measured can lead to applications beyond cryptocurrencies to other phenomena that leave digital footprints, such as online social network usage.

Abstract

Among species providing uniparental care, the caring parent faces time constraints and may have to compromise offspring care/protection for self-maintenance. In most mammalian species females raise their offspring without receiving help from males. Communal nesting, when multiple females share a single nest where they rear their pups together, may have evolved as a mutually beneficial cooperative behaviour to reduce mothers' nest attendance without increasing the time their offspring are left alone. We tested this hypothesis using data collected in a free-living house mouse population where reproduction occurred in nest boxes and was closely monitored. Individuals were fitted with transponders allowing automatic recording of their location, and a genetic parentage analysis confirmed maternal identity. Compared to mothers raising their pups solitarily, communally nesting mothers spent less time inside their nest. Their pups, however, were left alone for a similar amount of time as solitarily raised pups. The time communal litters were left alone did not covary with the kinship of communally nesting females. These results indicate that communally nesting mothers can allocate more time to foraging or territorial defence without impairing the amount of maternal attention received by their offspring. Nevertheless, communally nesting mothers showed some overlap in their stays at the nest. Offspring may benefit from more regular meals while mothers may gain information on the partner's contribution to combined maternal care which could potentially prevent cheating.

Remarks

Featured Article in the June 2014 issue of Animal Behaviour (DOI: 10.1016/j.anbehav.2014.04.039).

Abstract

When exploring the structure and function of such complex systems, the visualization of network topologies has become a standard technique. Many - if not most - of the systems being considered are inherently dynamic and in recent years more and more data on their dynamics are becoming available in the form of so-called temporal networks. We propose a simple mechanism that can be used to include temporal correlations present in longitudinal data on temporal networks in the layout of time-aggregated network structures. We particularly focus on non-Markovian properties of contact sequences in temporal networks, i.e. the fact that future contacts not only depend on the current contact, but also on past contacts. We demonstrate our approach by visualising a set of examples for temporal networks with non-Markovian properties. The visualisations show that the resulting visualizations reveal important aspects like e.g. community structures of the dynamics which - although present in empirical data sets - a) are not represented in static, aggregate networks and b) cannot easily be seen even in dynamic visualizations of temporal networks.

Abstract

This paper employs a homogeneous-firm database to investigate industry localization in European countries. More specifically, it compares, across industries and countries, the predictions of two of the most popular localization indexes, that is, the Ellison and Glaeser index of 1997 and the Duranton and Overman index of 2005. Independently from the index used, it is found that localization is a pervasive phenomenon in all countries studied; and the degree of localization is very unevenly distributed across industries in each country. Furthermore, it is shown that in all countries localized sectors are mainly ‘traditional’ sectors or, if one controls for country industrial structures, science-based sectors. Moreover, it is found that the two indexes significantly diverge in predicting the intensity of localization of the same industry both across and within countries. In turn, these differences point to the different role played by pecuniary versus non-pecuniary externalities in driving firms' location decisions.

Abstract

The structure of a society depends, to some extent, on the incentives of the individuals they are composed of. We study a stylized model of this interplay, that suggests that the more individuals aim at climbing the social hierarchy, the more society's hierarchy gets strong. Such a dependence is sharp, in the sense that a persistent hierarchical order emerges abruptly when the preference for social status gets larger than a threshold. This phase transition has its origin in the fact that the presence of a well defined hierarchy allows agents to climb it, thus reinforcing it, whereas in a "disordered" society it is harder for agents to find out whom they should connect to in order to become more central. Interestingly, a social order emerges when agents strive harder to climb society and it results in a state of reduced social mobility, as a consequence of ergodicity breaking, where climbing is more difficult.

Abstract

The recent credit crisis of 2007/08 has raised a debate about the so-called knife-edge properties of financial markets. The paper contributes to the debate shedding light on the controversial relation between risk-diversification and financial stability. We model a financial network where assets held by borrowers to meet their obligations, include claims against other borrowers and securities exogenous to the network. The balance-sheet approach is conjugated with a stochastic setting and by a mean-field approximation the law of motion of the system's fragility is derived. We show that diversification has an ambiguous effect and beyond a certain levels elicits financial instability. Moreover, we find that risk-sharing restrictions create a socially preferable outcome. Our findings have significant implications for future policy recommendation.

Abstract

We study a system in which N agents have to decide between two strategies θ_(i) (i ∈ 1... N), for defection or cooperation, when interacting with other n agents (either spatial neighbors or randomly chosen ones). After each round, they update their strategy responding nonlinearly to two different information sources: (i) the payoff a_(i)(θ_(i), f_(i)) received from the strategic interaction with their n counterparts, (ii) the fraction f_(i) of cooperators in this interaction. For the latter response, we assume social herding, i.e. agents adopt their strategy based on the frequencies of the different strategies in their neighborhood, without taking into account the consequences of this decision. We note that f_(i) already determines the payoff, so there is no additional information assumed. A parameter ζ defines to what level agents take the two different information sources into account. For the strategic interaction, we assume a Prisoner's Dilemma game, i.e. one in which defection is the evolutionary stable strategy. However, if the additional dimension of social herding is taken into account, we find instead a stable outcome where cooperators are the majority. By means of agent-based computer simulations and analytical investigations, we evaluate the critical conditions for this transition towards cooperation. We find that, in addition to a high degree of social herding, there has to be a nonlinear response to the fraction of cooperators. We argue that the transition to cooperation in our model is based on less information, i.e. on agents which are not informed about the payoff matrix, and therefore rely on just observing the strategy of others, to adopt it. By designing the right mechanisms to respond to this information, the transition to cooperation can be remarkably enhanced.

Abstract

The recent crisis has brought to the fore a crucial question that remains still open: what would be the optimal architecture of financial systems? We investigate the stability of several benchmark topologies in a simple default cascading dynamics in bank networks. We analyze the interplay of several crucial drivers, i.e., network topology, banks' capital ratios, market illiquidity, and random vs targeted shocks. We find that, in general, topology matters only – but substantially – when the market is illiquid. No single topology is always superior to others. In particular, scale-free networks can be both more robust and more fragile than homogeneous architectures. This finding has important policy implications. We also apply our methodology to a comprehensive dataset of an interbank market from 1999 to 2011.

Abstract

We study the role of hierarchical structures in a simple model of collective consensus formation based on the bounded confidence model with continuous individual opinions. For the particular variation of this model considered in this paper, we assume that a bias towards an extreme opinion is introduced whenever two individuals interact and form a common decision. As a simple proxy for hierarchical social structures, we introduce a two-step decision making process in which in the second step groups of like-minded individuals are replaced by representatives once they have reached local consensus, and the representatives in turn form a collective decision in a downstream process. We find that the introduction of such a hierarchical decision making structure can improve consensus formation, in the sense that the eventual collective opinion is closer to the true average of individual opinions than without it. In particular, we numerically study how the size of groups of like-minded individuals being represented by delegate individuals affects the impact of the bias on the final population-wide consensus. These results are of interest for the design of organisational policies and the optimisation of hierarchical structures in the context of group decision making.

Abstract

We analyse time series of CDS spreads for a set of major US and European institutions in a period overlapping the recent financial crisis. We extend the existing methodology of epsilon-drawdowns to the one of joint epsilon-drawups, in order to estimate the conditional probabilities of spike-like co-movements among pairs of spreads. After correcting for randomness and finite size effects, we find that, depending on the period of time, 50% of the pairs or more exhibit high probabilities of joint drawups and the majority of spread series are trend-reinforced, i.e. drawups tend to be followed by drawups in the same series. We then carry out a network analysis by taking the probability of joint drawups as a proxy of financial dependencies among institutions. We introduce two novel centrality-like measures that offer insights on how both the systemic impact of each node as well as its vulnerability to other nodes' shocks evolve in time.

Abstract

The goal of human resource management is to ensure an effective company environment. Crucial for a good corporate culture is a comfortable atmosphere and positive social relationships between the employees. The interactions of the people and groups working in the company define their relationships and are reflected in the company's social network. Projections of such networks are Enterprise Social Networks which are more and more integrated in companies. These social networks can be a powerful tool to analyse the structure of a company and indicate potential problems. This extended abstract poses research questions to identify and quantify mechanisms that have an impact on the social network of a company to ensure resilience. To address these questions we make assumptions based on real-world observations for a subsequent model.

Abstract

We empirically analyze five online communities: Friendster, Livejournal, Facebook, Orkut, Myspace, to identify causes for the decline of social networks. We define social resilience as the ability of a community to withstand changes. We do not argue about the cause of such changes, but concentrate on their impact. Changes may cause users to leave, which may trigger further leaves of others who lost connection to their friends. This may lead to cascades of users leaving. A social network is said to be resilient if the size of such cascades can be limited. To quantify resilience, we use the k-core analysis, to identify subsets of the network in which all users have at least k friends. These connections generate benefits (b) for each user, which have to outweigh the costs (c) of being a member of the network. If this difference is not positive, users leave. After all cascades, the remaining network is the k-core of the original network determined by the cost-to-benefit c/b ratio. By analysing the cumulative distribution of k-cores we are able to calculate the number of users remaining in each community. This allows us to infer the impact of the c/b ratio on the resilience of these online communities. We find that the different online communities have different k-core distributions. Consequently, similar changes in the c/b ratio have a different impact on the amount of active users. As a case study, we focus on the evolution of Friendster. We identify time periods when new users entering the network observed an insufficient c/b ratio. This measure can be seen as a precursor of the later collapse of the community. Our analysis can be applied to estimate the impact of changes in the user interface, which may temporarily increase the c/b ratio, thus posing a threat for the community to shrink, or even to collapse.

Abstract

We present a study political discourse and emotional expression through a dataset of Spanish tweets. We analyze the political position of four major parties through their Twitter activity, revealing that Twitter political discourse depends on subjective perception, and resembles the political space of Spain. We propose a simplified lexicon-based method to identify the topics of a tweet, which works especially well to detect the political content of tweets. Furthermore, we adapted SentiStrength to Spanish, by translating and converting an established lexicon of word valence. Under certain design decisions, this tool performs better than random, with ample room for improvement. Finally, we combined three datasets to analyze the sentiment expressed in the political tweets of four major Spanish parties, finding differences related to the status quo, and the Spanish political climate.

Abstract

We analyse the relation between the emotions and the activity of contributors in the Open Source Software project Gentoo. Our case study builds on extensive data sets from the project's bug tracking platform Bugzilla, to quantify the activity of contributors, and its mail archives, to quantify the emotions of contributors by means of sentiment analysis. The Gentoo project is known for a considerable drop in development performance after the sudden retirement of a central contributor. We analyse how this event correlates with the negative emotions, both in bilateral email discussions with the central contributor, and at the level of the whole community of contributors. We then extend our study to consider the activity patters on Gentoo contributors in general. We find that contributors are more likely to become inactive when they express strong positive or negative emotions in the bug tracker, or when they deviate from the expected value of emotions in the mailing list. We use these insights to develop a Bayesian classifier that detects the risk of contributors leaving the project. Our analysis opens new perspectives for measuring online contributor motivation by means of sentiment analysis and for real-time predictions of contributor turnover in Open Source Software projects.

Abstract

Measuring culture and its dynamics through surveys has important limitations, but the emerging eld of computational social science allows us to overcome them by analyzing large-scale datasets. In this article, we study cultural dynamics through the votes in the Eurovision song contest, which are decided by a crowd-based scheme in which viewers vote through mobile phone messages. Taking into account asymmetries and imperfect perception of culture, we measure cultural relations among European countries in terms of cultural anity. We propose the Friend-or-Foe coecient, a metric to measure voting biases among participants of a Eurovision contest. To validate how this metric represent cultural anity, we designed a model of a random, biased Eurovision contest. Simulations of this model show how our metrics can detect negative anities and serve as an estimator for positive anities. We apply this estimator to the historical set of Eurovision contests from 1975 to 2012, nding patterns of asymmetry and clustering in the resulting networks. Furthermore, we dene a measure of vote polarization that, when applied to empirical data, shows a sharp increase within countries of the EU during 2010 and 2011. As a result, we measure how the recent political decisions of EU states inuence the way their citizens relate to the culture of other EU members, leading to stronger cultural biases in the way they vote in the Eurovision song contest.